Dallas (39-43) at Memphis (48-34)
- When: Apr 18 2025, 9:30 PM
- Where: FedExForum, Memphis, TN, USA
- TV: ESPN
NBA Play-In Game Preview & Expert Picks: Grizzlies vs. Mavericks
Spread: Memphis -6 | Total: 222.0
Memphis Grizzlies Betting Outlook
The Grizzlies find themselves one win away from clinching the final playoff spot in the West, but they may have to get it done without Ja Morant. The star point guard re-aggravated a right ankle injury in Tuesday’s loss to the Warriors and is a true game-time decision for Friday’s play-in elimination game against the Mavericks.
Morant dropped 22 points despite tweaking his ankle in that loss and showed grit by returning in the fourth quarter. If he suits up, expect him to play through pain. Player prop bettors should monitor warmups closely — if cleared, Morant’s over on points is tempting in a win-or-go-home scenario.
Memphis stumbled badly down the stretch, losing 10 of its final 16 games and firing head coach Taylor Jenkins in the process. Interim coach Tuomas Iisalo will lean on young guard Scotty Pippen Jr. and veteran contributors to keep the offense flowing should Morant sit.
In the season series, the Grizzlies dominated Dallas 3-1, including a 132-97 blowout last Sunday. But that win came with both teams resting starters, and this game has everything on the line.
Key Trends:
Grizzlies are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.
The Under has hit in 4 of Memphis’ last 5 games at home.
Predicted Stat Line (If Active):
Ja Morant – 24 points, 6 assists, 5 rebounds
Dallas Mavericks Betting Outlook
The Mavericks are riding high after a statement 120-106 win over Sacramento to stay alive in the West’s play-in picture. While Luka Doncic is no longer in the mix after being traded, Anthony Davis has become the clear engine for Dallas.
Davis exploded for 27 points, 9 boards, and 3 blocks in just his 10th game with the team. His size and touch around the rim could cause major problems for a Memphis squad that lacks depth in the paint without key rotation players.
Veteran Klay Thompson continues to find rhythm. After a miserable play-in showing last year with Golden State, Thompson bounced back by hitting five threes and pouring in 23 points against the Kings. If he stays hot, his over on three-pointers made is worth targeting.
Despite a shaky end to the regular season (losing 4 of 5), the Mavericks looked sharp and well-coached in their last outing. With Davis and Thompson finding chemistry, Dallas has the firepower to pull the upset, even on the road.
Key Trends:
Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a win.
Dallas has gone Over the total in 6 of their last 8 games overall.
Predicted Stat Line:
Anthony Davis – 28 points, 11 rebounds, 2 blocks
Klay Thompson – 19 points, 3 threes made
Final Prediction & Best Bets
Both teams are in must-win mode, but Dallas comes in with momentum and offensive balance, while Memphis may be without its best player. Even if Morant plays, the ankle is likely to limit him.
Pick Against the Spread: Dallas (+200)
Best Prop Bets:
Anthony Davis Over 27.5 Points
Klay Thompson Over 2.5 Threes Made
Score Prediction: Dallas 112, Memphis 108
Take the Mavericks to pull off the road upset to lock in the 8-seed.
- NBA Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
