Dallas (39-43) at Sacramento (40-42)
- When: Apr 16 2025, 8:00 PM
- Where: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA, USA
- TV: ESPN
NBA Play-In Preview: Mavericks vs. Kings
Spread: Sacramento -4.5 | Total: 214.0
Dallas Mavericks Outlook
The Mavericks (39-43) find themselves clinging to postseason hopes as the 10th seed in the West. It’s been a season marred by inconsistency and injuries — most notably the loss of Kyrie Irving to an ACL tear back in early March. That injury derailed any remaining rhythm for Dallas, which enters this do-or-die play-in matchup having dropped four of their last five.
Dallas may get a boost with Anthony Davis, acquired in the blockbuster Luka Doncic trade, listed as probable despite a nagging adductor strain. His presence could give the Mavs a much-needed frontcourt edge, especially with Domantas Sabonis on the other side. Veteran Klay Thompson, who infamously went scoreless against Sacramento in last season’s play-in, will try to rewrite that script.
While the regular season was unkind to Dallas — including three losses to Sacramento by a combined 35 points — their back-against-the-wall mentality might spark a more focused effort. But with a thin rotation and limited scoring depth, they’ll need a near-perfect outing to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Prediction: Dallas struggles defensively and ranks near the bottom in net rating since the All-Star break. Expect them to keep things competitive, but ultimately come up short.
Player Prop Targets (Dallas):
Klay Thompson OVER 13.5 points – Redemption game narrative.
Daniel Gafford OVER 4.5 rebounds – Should see extended minutes if Davis is limited.
Sacramento Kings Outlook
The Kings (40-42) have momentum and homecourt — two ingredients that matter most in a sudden-death scenario. They’ve won four of their last six and are playing with more cohesion after some early-season chaos, including the mid-year firing of Mike Brown and a roster shuffle that brought Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan into the fold.
Domantas Sabonis remains the engine of the team, averaging a double-double machine’s worth of production, while LaVine has begun to settle into his role as a dynamic scoring threat. DeRozan’s midrange mastery and playoff experience make this Sacramento squad far more dangerous than their record suggests.
Additionally, Jonas Valanciunas brings unmatched play-in experience, having appeared in eight such games — the most in league history. That type of postseason muscle in the paint could be the X-factor if the game becomes a grind-it-out affair.
Prediction: Sacramento has the better chemistry, a healthier rotation, and home-court edge. They win and cover the spread.
Player Prop Targets (Sacramento):
Domantas Sabonis OVER 13.5 rebounds – Dallas has struggled on the glass.
Zach LaVine OVER 23.5 points – Primed for a big game as a volume shooter.
Jonas Valanciunas OVER 9.5 rebounds – Leverages his playoff pedigree.
Final Score Prediction: Kings 112, Mavericks 104
Betting Summary:
Best Bet ATS: Sacramento -5.0
Total Lean: OVER 214.0
- NBA Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
