Denver (0-0) at Oklahoma City (0-0)
- When: May 5 2025, 9:30 PM
- Where: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK, USA
- TV: TNT
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets Game 1 Preview
Spread: Thunder favored by -9.5 | Total: 225.0
Oklahoma City Thunder: Rested and Ready
After a dominant sweep of Memphis, the Thunder have had over a week to rest and refocus for Round 2. Oklahoma City’s youth, speed, and depth have them in prime position to come out fast in Game 1 against a Denver team still catching its breath.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, a top MVP candidate, has been the centerpiece for OKC. He averaged 30.3 PPG against Denver this season and erupted for 38 points in the series-clinching win over Memphis. With his rhythm back, expect SGA to lead the Thunder attack in transition and isolation.
The Thunder split their regular-season meetings with the Nuggets, but they won by 24 in their most recent clash in OKC. Add in the elevation from the crowd and the Thunder’s energy off extended rest, and they should push the pace and test Denver’s legs early.
Top Player Prop:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 31.5 Points — He’s fresh, at home, and Denver had no answer for him in March.
Denver Nuggets: Battle-Tested but Drained?
Denver had to grind through a physical 7-game battle with the Clippers, and it showed. While Nikola Jokic was his usual triple-double self (24/11.6/10.1 averages), the team looked emotionally and physically taxed by the end.
Jokic is still a matchup nightmare and posted two triple-doubles vs. OKC during the regular season. However, fatigue could be a factor for both him and Denver’s core as they face a faster, deeper, and younger Thunder roster.
Russell Westbrook, the former Thunder legend, was a spark off the bench in Round 1. He provided grit and tempo, shooting 42% from three but Game 1 will test whether that momentum can carry over on tired legs.
Top Player Prop:
Nikola Jokic Over 9.5 Assists — He’s been the offensive engine, and Denver needs his playmaking sharp to keep up with OKC’s athletic wings.
Game 1 Prediction:
Oklahoma City has all the momentum and more importantly, fresh legs. Expect them to set the tone with pace and perimeter defense. Denver keeps it respectable behind Jokic, but the Thunder cover and take Game 1 at home.
Betting Lean: Thunder -9.5
Total: Over 225 – if both stars get rolling.
Final Score Prediction: Thunder 120, Nuggets 107
- NBA Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
