Denver (2-2) at Oklahoma City (2-2)
- When: May 13 2025, 9:30 PM
- Where: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK, USA
- TV: TNT
Nuggets vs. Thunder – Game 5 Preview, Prediction, and Player Props
Spread: Thunder -10.5 | Total: 221.0
Oklahoma City Thunder Analysis
The Oklahoma City Thunder have been flexing their dominance all season, racking up one of the best records in NBA history and posting a league-best +12.9-point differential per game. That kind of production made them heavy favorites in their Western Conference semifinal against the Denver Nuggets. But even with their regular-season brilliance, Oklahoma City knew the road wouldn’t be smooth against a team led by Nikola Jokic and bolstered by postseason experience.
The series is now tied 2-2, heading back to Oklahoma City for Game 5. Coach Mark Daigneault remains confident, noting that each game has been a learning experience for his squad. “We’re a better team than we were at the beginning of the series,” Daigneault said. “Every punch we take and get back up from, it just makes us stronger.”
Oklahoma City’s star, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, has been sensational, averaging 27.5 points on 47.5% shooting while frequently earning trips to the free-throw line. His scoring touch has been particularly lethal at home, where he put up at least 33 points in both games. With Gilgeous-Alexander leading the charge and the Thunder’s deep rotation 10 players averaging double-digit minutes the team has the tools to seize control. Expect the Thunder to lean heavily on their depth to wear down Denver’s limited bench and outlast them over four quarters.
Player Prop Picks for Oklahoma City:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 31.5 Points – His consistency and ability to dominate at home make this a strong pick.
Jalen Williams Over 4.5 Assists – With Denver tightening up on SGA, Williams will need to facilitate more often.
Denver Nuggets Analysis
The Denver Nuggets, despite some rocky moments, have managed to make this a series. A lot of their struggles can be traced back to Nikola Jokic, who is shooting just 33.3% from the field and 18.2% from deep over the last three games. Those numbers are shockingly uncharacteristic for a player of his caliber, especially considering he shot above 40% almost every night during the regular season.
Jokic admits that Oklahoma City’s defense has been a major factor. “They’re really getting into my body, handsy, physical,” he said. “I need to do a better job, of course, but it’s part of the game.” Even with his struggles, the Nuggets have been competitive, largely due to their physicality and aggression.
However, Denver’s depth has been exposed. Their seven-man rotation has shown signs of fatigue, especially against Oklahoma City’s 10-deep bench. Coach David Adelman knows they need more contributions. “We just have to get more from more people,” he remarked.
For Denver to steal Game 5 on the road, they’ll need Jokic to find his rhythm and some bench players to step up in a big way. If the supporting cast can’t deliver, it could be a long night in Oklahoma City.
Player Prop Picks for Denver:
Nikola Jokic Over 13.5 Rebounds – Despite shooting struggles, his presence on the boards remains strong.
Michael Porter Jr. Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made – If Denver is going to stay competitive, they need his outside shooting.
Game 5 Prediction and Final Score
Oklahoma City has been dominant at home, and with Gilgeous-Alexander firing on all cylinders, they look poised to take Game 5. Denver’s depth issues and Jokic’s inconsistency are glaring weaknesses that the Thunder are set to exploit. Expect OKC to control the pace and pull away late for a convincing win.
Spread: Oklahoma City -10.5
Toral: Under 221.0
Final Score Prediction: Oklahoma City 115, Denver 102
- NBA Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
