Houston (34-4) vs Duke (35-3)
- When: Apr 5 2025, 8:49 PM
- Where: Alamodome, San Antonio, TX, USA
- Where to watch: CBS
Final Four Betting Preview & Expert Predictions: Houston vs. Duke
Line: Duke -5.0 | Total: 136.0
Duke Blue Devils: Talent Meets Momentum
Duke enters the Final Four locked in and rolling behind one of the most balanced offenses in the country. The Blue Devils (35-3) are averaging a sizzling 91.8 points per game in the tournament while shooting 56.2% from the field and 47.3% from deep. Cooper Flagg continues to play like a top NBA draft pick, averaging nearly 19 points per game and dominating on both ends.
Even without massive national hype, Duke’s guard trio of Knueppel, Proctor, and James is lethal from deep and steady under pressure. Their shooting splits and high IQ ball movement have made them extremely tough to defend. Coach Jon Scheyer, now in his third year, knows what it takes in this environment — having won a title as a player and helped lead Duke to deep runs as an assistant.
Betting Angle: Duke’s offense is just too efficient, and their perimeter shooting creates matchup nightmares for Houston’s aggressive man defense. The Blue Devils are peaking at the right time and have covered four of their last five tournament games. Lay the points.
Houston Cougars: Elite Defense With a Chip on Their Shoulder
Houston (34-4) continues to thrive in the underdog role, riding the nation’s top-rated defense to a deep tournament push. The Cougars have held opponents to just 37.6% shooting and only 24% from 3-point range. That defensive toughness is led by veteran forward J’Wan Roberts, who also anchors the boards with 6.3 rebounds per game.
Scoring-wise, L.J. Cryer (15.4 ppg), Emanuel Sharp (12.7), and Milos Uzan (11.6) give Houston reliable perimeter threats, but the Cougars will need to slow the tempo and dominate the paint to pull the upset. Expect them to throw multiple looks at Flagg and aim to make Duke uncomfortable in the half-court.
Betting Angle: Houston’s path to success lies in grinding this game into the 60s and forcing Duke into foul trouble. But if Duke jumps out early, Houston lacks the explosive offensive tools to keep up. If you like Houston, consider the under — but taking them to win outright feels like a stretch here.
Final Thoughts & Prediction
Duke has too many weapons and is playing with poise and pace. Houston’s defense will test their discipline, but if the Blue Devils keep their shooting rhythm and limit turnovers, this game could tilt their way late. Expect Flagg to show up big on the national stage, and for Duke’s shooting to make the difference.
Score Prediction: Duke 71, Houston 64
ATS Pick: Duke -5.0
Total Lean: Under 136.0
Top Props:
Cooper Flagg Over 19.5 points
L.J. Cryer Over 2.5 threes
J’Wan Roberts Over 6.5 rebounds
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
