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Lillard Trade Boosts Milwaukee Bucks’ Title Odds to +375

Mar 31, 2023; Portland, Oregon, USA; Portland Trail Blazers point guard Damian Lillard (0) watches players warm up prior to the game against the Sacramento Kings at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

  • Damian Lillard has been traded to the Milwaukee Bucks
  • The move improved Milwaukee’s title odds to +375, best in the league
  • Below, see the updated NBA champions odds for all 30 teams after the Lillard-to-Milwaukee deal

The NBA’s balance of power has been upset just weeks before the 2023-24 regular season is scheduled to begin. On Wednesday afternoon, the already-stacked Milwaukee Bucks traded for star point guard Damian Lillard from the Portland Trail Blazers

2024 NBA Championship Favorites

NBA Championship 2023-24
Milwaukee Bucks   +375
Denver Nuggets   +500
Boston Celtics   +550
Phoenix Suns   +650
Miami Heat   +2000
Golden State Warriors   +1200
Los Angeles Lakers   +1200
Philadelphia 76ers   +2200
Los Angeles Clippers   +2000
Dallas Mavericks   +2500
Memphis Grizzlies   +2800
Cleveland Cavaliers   +3000
Sacramento Kings   +5000
New Orleans Pelicans   +5000
New York Knicks   +5000
Atlanta Hawks   +7500
Minnesota Timberwolves   +7500
Oklahoma City Thunder   +8000
Toronto Raptors   +10000
Brooklyn Nets   +10000
Chicago Bulls   +15000
San Antonio Spurs   +12500
Portland Trail Blazers   +25000
Utah Jazz   +25000
Indiana Pacers   +30000
Orlando Magic   +35000
Houston Rockets   +40000
Detroit Pistons   +50000
Charlotte Hornets   +50000
Washington Wizards   +75000

The Bucks are now +375 favorites in the NBA Championship odds, with the reigning-champion Denver Nuggets dropping to second at +500. The Boston Celtics remaining the third-favorite, but fell from +500 to +550 with the Eastern Conference now looking all the tougher.

Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook

Lillard Gives Giannis Legit Backcourt Superstar

The deal for Lillard fills the most-obvious hole on the Milwaukee roster. With Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez dominating the frontcourt, and oft-injured Khris Middleton laboring in the backcourt, Lillard represents a perfect fit for the star-studded Bucks.

Oddsmakers agree. Milwaukee had been a +460 second-favorite to the reigning-champion Nuggets. Their move to +390 represents an increase in their implied win probability from 17.86% to 20.41%. It might not seem like a huge jump on paper, but it is. Indeed, it boosts their implied win probability 14.3% from where it stood before the trade.

The full deal involved three teams, including the Phoenix Suns. The Blazers obtained a solid return for Lillard, getting Jrue Holiday from the Bucks plus Deandre Ayton and rookie Toumani Camara from the Suns, along with Milwaukee’s 2029 first-round pick and pick-swap rights in both 2028 and 2030.

Lillard’s Health Less Than Ideal, But Production as High as Ever

The deal makes a ton of sense for Milwaukee’s win-now mentality. Holiday, who had been running the point, would have been redundant with Lillard on the roster, while retaining their picks for the next six drafts ensures they won’t age too quickly.

Lillard only managed to play 58 games for the also-ran Blazers this past season, but his production was the best its ever been. He averaged a career-high 32.2 PPG along with 7.3 assists, 4.8 rebounds, and nearly one steal per game. The seven-time NBA All-Star and former All-NBA First Team selection just turned 33 in the summer and has two years left on his current contract. He carries a cap hit of $45.64 million this year and $48.79 next year.

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