Miami (37-45) at Atlanta (40-42)
- When: Apr 18 2025, 7:00 PM
- Where: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA, USA
- TV: TNT
NBA Play-In Preview: Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks
Spread: Atlanta -1.5 | Total: 220.0
The final Eastern Conference playoff spot is on the line Friday night as the Atlanta Hawks host the Miami Heat in what amounts to a win-or-go-home showdown. Both teams are battling for the No. 8 seed and the right to face top-seeded Cleveland in the opening round.
Atlanta Hawks Outlook:
Atlanta enters this matchup after an embarrassing 25-point road loss to Orlando. Despite the setback, they hold home-court advantage, where they’ve been far more effective—especially against Miami. The Hawks won both home games against the Heat this season by double digits and are 2-0 ATS in those contests. The absence of key wings Jalen Johnson (shoulder) and De’Andre Hunter (traded) could limit their defensive versatility, but Trae Young remains the x-factor. Young struggled in three meetings with Miami, averaging just 13 points before erupting for 29 in March. After getting ejected in the loss to Orlando, look for a locked-in version of Young with something to prove.
Miami Heat Outlook:
The Heat come into this game riding the momentum of a dominant 109-90 win over the Bulls in their elimination game. Tyler Herro has been on a tear, scoring 20+ in ten straight games and dropping 38 on Chicago. He torched the Hawks in their two home games, averaging 30 points. Miami also won the last two matchups against Atlanta and is 2-0 ATS in those recent wins. Coach Erik Spoelstra praised his team’s growth over the past several weeks, and this experienced group is no stranger to clutch postseason basketball.
Betting Prediction:
Miami has turned things around down the stretch, while Atlanta looks shaky, especially after their most recent performance. The Heat’s defensive pressure has been effective against Trae Young, and Herro’s hot hand gives Miami the scoring edge they’ll need. While the Hawks are a better team at home, momentum and playoff poise tilt this matchup slightly in Miami’s favor.
Score Prediction: Heat 107, Hawks 103
Pick: Miami Heat ML (+100)
Lean: Under 220
Expect a physical, grind-it-out game where Miami’s playoff experience prevails.
- NBA Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
