Miami (37-45) at Chicago (39-43)
- When: Apr 16 2025, 7:30 PM
- Where: United Center, Chicago, IL, USA
- TV: ESPN
Heat vs Bulls – NBA Prediction, Odds & Betting Analysis
Spread: Chicago -1.0 | Total: 222.0
The Chicago Bulls might be the higher seed, but Wednesday night’s Eastern Conference Play-In showdown with the Miami Heat could be far more unpredictable than the standings suggest. Despite holding the ninth spot at 39-43, Chicago opens as a slim 1-point favorite with the total set at 222.0 — an indication of just how close this battle could be.
Bulls Outlook & Injury Report
Chicago swept all three regular-season meetings against Miami, but they enter the play-in with some major health concerns in the backcourt. Lonzo Ball (wrist) is doubtful and still not cleared for game action despite returning to limited basketball activity this week. Tre Jones remains in a walking boot and is also unlikely to suit up, while Josh Giddey is listed as probable but managing a nagging hand injury that forced him to sit out the final two regular-season games.
If Giddey plays, he could be the X-factor. In three games versus the Heat this season, he averaged a ridiculous 26.0 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 10.0 assists while shooting over 58 percent from the field and beyond the arc. Since the All-Star break, Giddey has taken his game up a notch, averaging 21.2 points, 10.7 boards, and 9.3 dimes over 19 games. If he’s anywhere near full strength, he could carry the shorthanded Bulls offensively.
The Bulls are also red hot entering this clash, having won six of their last seven. However, with so many key rotation players potentially sidelined, they’ll need a complete team effort — especially if this one turns into a grind-it-out, half-court affair.
Heat Outlook & Key Players
Miami limps into the play-in round having dropped four of their last six after a six-game winning streak. Still, they boast the kind of veteran firepower that makes them dangerous in a one-game scenario.
Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo both rested in Miami’s regular-season finale but are expected back in the lineup. Herro is coming off a career year, posting 23.9 points and 5.5 assists per game, while Adebayo added 18.1 points and 9.6 rebounds per contest. Against the Bulls this year, Herro averaged 24.7 points, 6.7 boards, and 6.3 assists, with Adebayo contributing 21 points per game on solid efficiency.
The Heat may have dropped all three regular-season games against Chicago, but they have the health advantage and the postseason pedigree, led by head coach Erik Spoelstra, to flip the script when it matters most.
Expert Prediction & Betting Angle
Chicago may have the head-to-head edge and home-court advantage, but their injury concerns — especially in the backcourt — could prove costly against a Miami team that’s nearly at full strength.
Prediction: Miami 108, Chicago 104
ATS Pick: Heat ML (+100)
Total Pick: Under 222
Best Bet: Coby White Under 23.5 Points
Look for the Heat to play with urgency, especially with their full core available, and lean on their playoff-tested stars to grind out a road win in a low-scoring, hard-fought affair.
- NBA Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
