Oklahoma City (1-1) at Denver (1-1)
- When: May 9 2025, 10:00 PM
- Where: Ball Arena, Denver, CO, USA
- TV: ESPN
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets Game 3 Preview and Prediction
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) | Total: 233.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets are set to clash in Game 3 of their Western Conference quarterfinal series as the action shifts to Denver. Oklahoma City bounced back in a big way after a stunning loss in Game 1, dominating Game 2 with a 43-point rout to even the series. Now, the Thunder look to maintain their momentum and reclaim home-court advantage with a win on the road, where they posted an impressive 32-8 record during the regular season.
Oklahoma City Thunder Overview
Oklahoma City came out firing in Game 2, leading by 24 points after the first quarter and putting up an eye-popping 87 points in the first half. They cruised to a massive win, showcasing their ability to not only outpace but completely overwhelm Denver. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was instrumental in setting the tone early, pushing the pace and controlling the offensive tempo.
Despite the dominating performance, Gilgeous-Alexander remained grounded, emphasizing the importance of moving on: “Winning by a hundred or winning by two, it’s still 1-1. It’s important to turn the page.” For the Thunder to extend their momentum into Game 3, they will need to stick with their aggressive defensive approach that stifled Nikola Jokic. Oklahoma City’s physicality was evident, forcing the reigning MVP into six turnovers and limiting him to 17 points and eight rebounds a stark contrast to his 42-point, 22-rebound outing in Game 1.
The Thunder will look to replicate that physical defense in Denver, as containing Jokic is crucial to controlling the Nuggets’ offense. Oklahoma City’s defense also forced 21 turnovers and outrebounded Denver 44-38, reversing the dominance the Nuggets showed on the boards in Game 1. Expect Oklahoma City to lean on their defensive intensity and explosive offense to cover the -5.5 spread.
Denver Nuggets Overview
The Nuggets were stunned in Game 2, struggling across the board. Denver shot just 37.9% from the field, committed 21 turnovers, and lost the rebounding battle—a category they won by 20 boards in the series opener. Nikola Jokic found himself physically matched and visibly frustrated, eventually fouling out in the third quarter. His teammates, including Aaron Gordon, pointed to the Thunder’s physicality as a reason for his struggles, claiming that Jokic was fouled repeatedly without calls.
Denver’s supporting cast also fell short, with Michael Porter Jr. continuing to deal with a lingering shoulder sprain that has impacted his shooting. Although not officially listed on the injury report, his limited effectiveness has opened up more minutes for Russell Westbrook. Coach David Adelman acknowledged the team’s shortcomings, stating that players were honest in their film session, identifying what went wrong and focusing on adjustments for Game 3.
The Nuggets are banking on their playoff experience to respond. Historically, Denver has shown resilience, bouncing back from tough losses in past playoff series. They came back to win against the Clippers in Game 4 after a blowout loss and rebounded from a 0-2 deficit against Minnesota last season. If Denver is to pull off the upset at home, they will need more from their bench and a more composed performance from Jokic.
Player Prop Picks:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – Over 31.5 Points: After a statement game in the blowout win, look for SGA to continue his hot streak.
Nikola Jokic – UNder 13.5 Rebounds: Jokic struggled on the boards in Game 2; expect OKC’s defense to limit his rebounds again.
Expert Prediction and Final Score
Oklahoma City’s momentum and defensive adjustments from Game 2 give them the edge heading into Denver. The Thunder have proven they can win on the road, and with their ability to disrupt Jokic and force turnovers, they should be able to control the tempo once again. Denver will make adjustments, but unless they can match Oklahoma City’s physicality and reduce turnovers, the Thunder are poised to take Game 3.
Spread: Thunder -5.5 – Expect Oklahoma City to cover the spread
Total: Over 233.5 – the game pushing towards the Over, as both teams look to push the pace and find their rhythm offensively.
Final Score Prediction: Thunder 121, Nuggets 114
- NBA Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
