Oklahoma City (1-2) at Denver (2-1)
- When: May 11 2025, 3:30 PM
- Where: Ball Arena, Denver, CO, USA
- TV: ABC
Thunder vs. Nuggets – Game 4 Preview and Prediction
Spread: Oklahoma City (-6.5) | Total: 227.5
Oklahoma City Thunder Analysis
The Oklahoma City Thunder find themselves in a familiar spot, down 2-1 in their Western Conference semifinal series against the Denver Nuggets. Despite dominating most statistical categories, including a +32 point differential across the three games, they’ve dropped two of the first three due to late-game collapses and execution issues. Game 3 saw the Thunder falter in overtime, losing 113-104 despite forcing Denver into mistakes and keeping Nikola Jokic under control.
Oklahoma City’s star, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, struggled mightily in the fourth quarter of Game 3, scoring just three points on 1-for-8 shooting and failing to attempt a single shot in overtime. His lack of production down the stretch contributed heavily to the Thunder’s inability to seal the win. However, his confidence hasn’t wavered. “Nothing’s written,” Gilgeous-Alexander said, adding that the series is far from over.
The Thunder are known for bouncing back from tough losses, and with their season essentially on the line, expect a more aggressive and disciplined effort from the team. Oklahoma City is 7-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last ten games as favorites, and they’ll look to even the series with a more polished performance on both ends of the floor.
Denver Nuggets Analysis
The Denver Nuggets managed to steal Game 3 in dramatic fashion, overcoming a poor shooting night from Nikola Jokic and a lopsided offensive rebounding disadvantage (18-5) to secure a 113-104 overtime victory. Despite Jokic’s struggles—shooting just 8-for-25 from the field and missing all 10 of his three-point attempts—the Nuggets found a way to win, largely thanks to timely contributions from Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr.
Gordon’s clutch three-pointer in the final minute of regulation pushed the game into overtime, while Porter broke out with a stellar shooting performance, going 5-for-6 from beyond the arc for 21 points. Porter has been playing through a sprained shoulder, but his resilience and scoring touch were crucial in securing the win.
Jokic, for his part, admitted he’s still trying to crack the code of Oklahoma City’s defensive schemes. “I don’t know what they are doing,” Jokic said. “Because if I knew, probably I’m not going to have those kinds of mistakes.” Despite his shooting woes, Jokic remains a constant threat, especially with Denver’s championship pedigree coming into play during clutch moments.
The Nuggets are 6-4 ATS in their last ten games as underdogs, and they have proven that even on off nights, they can grind out victories.
Prediction and Final Score
Oklahoma City knows this game is critical. Going down 3-1 to Denver with Game 5 back on the Nuggets’ home court would be a steep hill to climb. Expect Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to shake off his Game 3 slump and lead the Thunder to a bounce-back performance. Oklahoma City will clean up its fourth-quarter execution, limit Denver’s second-chance points, and protect home court.
Final Score Prediction: Thunder 120, Nuggets 110
Best Bet: Oklahoma City -6.5
Total: Over 227.5
The Thunder even the series with a strong road win, covering the spread and pushing the total comfortably over the line.
- NBA Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
