Oklahoma City (3-2) at Denver (2-3)
- When: May 15 2025, 8:30 PM
- Where: Ball Arena, Denver, CO, USA
- TV: ESPN
Thunder vs. Nuggets – Game 6 Preview, Prediction and Player Props
Spread: Oklahoma City -4.5 | Total: 217.5
Oklahoma City Thunder Analysis
The Oklahoma City Thunder find themselves just one win away from advancing to the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 2016. After clawing their way back from fourth-quarter deficits in back-to-back games, OKC holds a 3-2 series lead and can close things out on Denver’s home court Thursday night.
Game 5 showcased the Thunder’s resilience and clutch execution as they rallied late for a 112-105 victory. Oklahoma City’s defense has been instrumental, particularly in wearing down Denver’s star Nikola Jokic. Despite Jokic’s massive 44-point, 15-rebound performance, the Thunder’s ability to limit his supporting cast has been a game-changer.
Chet Holmgren, emerging as a crucial presence inside, emphasized the need to stay locked in for the closeout opportunity. “We can’t get complacent; we need to finish the job,” he stated confidently. The Thunder’s strategy of forcing Jokic to rely on his teammates has paid off, with Denver’s role players struggling to capitalize under pressure.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to be the engine for Oklahoma City, leading the team with poise and efficient scoring. His ability to penetrate the defense and find open looks has been key, especially during those late-game surges.
Denver Nuggets Analysis
For the Denver Nuggets, it’s do-or-die. Despite holding leads late in both Game 4 and Game 5, Denver faltered under the Thunder’s relentless pressure. Now, trailing 3-2, the Nuggets are desperate to force a Game 7 back in Oklahoma City.
Nikola Jokic was sensational in Game 5, posting 44 points and 15 rebounds, but it wasn’t enough. Denver’s supporting cast floundered, shooting just 17-for-59 outside of Jokic and Aaron Gordon’s contributions. Injuries have also been a thorn for Denver, with Michael Porter Jr. playing through a shoulder issue and struggling to find his rhythm.
Jamal Murray flashed moments of brilliance with a strong third quarter in Game 5 but disappeared in the fourth, going 1-for-6 from the field. Denver’s reliance on a tight seven-man rotation has raised questions of fatigue, something interim coach David Adelman acknowledged. “If it’s fatigue, that’s on me,” he stated.
The Nuggets are leaning on championship experience and the home crowd to keep their season alive, but the question remains if the supporting cast can step up when it matters most.
Player Prop Picks:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – Over 29.5 Points – Shai has been the heart of Oklahoma City’s offense, and with a chance to close out the series, expect him to be aggressive and pile up points.
Nikola Jokic – Over 13.5 Rebounds – Jokic has been a beast on the boards throughout the series. In a must-win scenario, anticipate him dominating the glass again as he battles to extend Denver’s season.
Game 6 Prediction and Final Score
The Thunder have shown they can execute in clutch moments, while Denver’s depth issues and reliance on Jokic have proven costly. Expect OKC to capitalize on their momentum and close out the series in a hard-fought 109-103 victory.
Spread: Oklahoma City -4.5
Toral: Under 217.5
Final Score Prediction: Oklahoma City 109, Denver 103
- NBA Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
