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Phoenix (8-15) at Las Vegas (16-6)
- When: Jul 11 2026, 6:00 PM
- Where: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Paradise, NV, USA
- TV: Peacock
Phoenix vs Las Vegas Preview & Prediction
Spread: Las Vegas -8.5
Moneyline: Las Vegas (-380)
Total: 169.0
The Las Vegas Aces return home as 8.5-point favorites with the total sitting at 169.0. After reclaiming a share of the WNBA’s best record, the Aces look to build momentum, while Phoenix hopes to avoid a third consecutive defeat after a promising stretch earlier this month.
Phoenix Mercury Betting Preview
Phoenix has dropped back-to-back contests after winning three in a row, but this team has already proven it can challenge Las Vegas. The Mercury stunned the Aces 99-66 in the season opener and will look to replicate that formula.
Veteran DeWanna Bonner recently became just the third player in WNBA history to surpass 8,000 career points and continues to provide valuable leadership, averaging 9.0 points per game in her 17th season. Alyssa Thomas remains the engine of the offense after posting 22 points, seven assists and six rebounds in the loss to Indiana.
Player Prop Pick: Kahleah Copper Over 20.5 Points
Copper thrives in transition and should see plenty of shot opportunities against an aggressive Las Vegas defense. Expect her to lead the Mercury offensively.
Las Vegas Aces Betting Preview
Las Vegas welcomed back its biggest superstar, and the results were immediate. A’ja Wilson returned from a three-game absence with 32 points and 10 rebounds, showing no signs of rust while shooting 10-for-19 from the field and 11-for-13 from the free-throw line.
Jackie Young added 19 points, 11 assists and three steals as the Aces improved to 16-6, tying Minnesota for the league’s best record. Becky Hammon’s squad has rediscovered its rhythm, and Wilson’s return elevates both ends of the floor.
The Aces have split two meetings with Phoenix this season, but playing at home with a healthy Wilson gives Las Vegas a significant advantage.
Player Prop Pick: A’Ja Wilson Over 24.5 Points
Wilson immediately returned to MVP form, and Phoenix lacks the interior size to consistently slow her down. Another 30-point performance is well within reach.
WNBA Final Score & Expert Prediction
Phoenix has enough offensive talent to stay competitive early, but Las Vegas owns the edge in star power, rebounding and late-game execution. Wilson’s return changes the complexion of this matchup, making the Aces the stronger play at home.
Final Score: Aces 91, Mercury 80
Lean: Las Vegas Aces -8.5
Total: Over 169.0
- WNBA Playoffs Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
