Indiana (14-7) at Purdue (16-5)
- When: Jan 31 2025, 7:00 PM
- Where: Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, IN, USA
- Where to watch: FOX
Game Preview
Purdue and Indiana meet in a classic Big Ten showdown on Friday night, with the Boilermakers favored by 12 points and the total set at 146. While Purdue has dominated this rivalry, winning 15 of the last 19 meetings, Indiana will be desperate to pull off an upset and turn its season around.
Purdue enters this matchup on fire, winning eight of its last nine games, while Indiana has struggled, dropping four of its last five. With Purdue looking to close the gap on first-place Michigan State in the conference race and Indiana sitting in ninth place, this game has massive implications.
Let’s break down the key betting factors for this matchup.
Indiana Hoosiers Analysis
The Hoosiers have been in a slump, losing four of their last five games, including a crushing 79-78 loss to Maryland where they blew a four-point lead with just 38 seconds left. Poor late-game execution has been an issue, and with a brutal schedule ahead—facing Purdue, Wisconsin, and Michigan State on the road—Indiana is in danger of spiraling even further.
Oumar Ballo remains the centerpiece of the Hoosiers’ attack, leading the team with 14.5 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 33 blocks this season. He’ll need to dominate inside to give Indiana a shot, especially against a Purdue team that thrives on controlling the paint.
Indiana also features three other double-digit scorers, with Malik Reneau (13.1), Mackenzie Mgbako (12.5), and Myles Rice (12.1) needing to step up offensively if they hope to keep pace with the Boilermakers.
Defensively, Indiana has had issues containing perimeter scorers and has been vulnerable against high-efficiency offenses. If their defense doesn’t tighten up, Purdue could run away with this one early.
Purdue Boilermakers Analysis
Purdue has been dominant at home this season, with just one loss at Mackey Arena—a 73-70 setback against Ohio State that snapped a 26-game home winning streak. However, they rebounded quickly, dismantling then-No. 21 Michigan 91-64 in their last home game.
The Boilermakers’ defensive pressure was on full display, forcing a season-high 22 turnovers while allowing just 6-of-29 shooting from beyond the arc. Expect them to apply the same pressure on Indiana, especially given the Hoosiers’ recent struggles in late-game situations.
Point guard Braden Smith has been outstanding, averaging 15.4 points and 8.9 assists per game, ranking third nationally in assists. His ability to create scoring opportunities and control the pace will be key for Purdue’s offense.
Purdue also boasts Trey Kaufman-Renn as their leading scorer at 18.1 points per game, followed by Fletcher Loyer (14.0 PPG), giving them multiple scoring threats.
Given their size advantage and defensive edge, Purdue should control the boards and dictate the tempo throughout this game.
Key Betting Factors
Purdue’s Dominance at Home: The Boilermakers have won 15 of the last 19 meetings and will look to extend that dominance.
Indiana’s Late-Game Struggles: The Hoosiers have lost four of their last five, including a collapse against Maryland where they blew a late lead.
Purdue’s Defensive Pressure: The Boilermakers forced 22 turnovers against Michigan, and Indiana will need to take care of the ball to stay competitive.
Braden Smith’s Playmaking: Smith has recorded 10+ assists in nine games this season and will be a major factor in Purdue’s offensive success.
Betting Predictions
Purdue has been far more consistent than Indiana and should have no problem controlling the game from start to finish. The Boilermakers’ ability to force turnovers and limit three-point shooting will make it tough for Indiana to keep up, especially on the road.
Indiana has talent, but their defensive lapses and struggles closing out games make them a risky bet to keep this one close. Purdue should pull away in the second half and cruise to a comfortable win.
Best Bets:
Purdue -12.0 (The Boilermakers’ dominance at home and Indiana’s struggles make this a strong play.)
Under 146.0 (Indiana’s offense has been inconsistent, and Purdue’s defense should keep the Hoosiers in check.)
Final Score Prediction: Purdue 78, Indiana 62
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
