San Diego (22-11) at NY Yankees (19-15)
- When: May 5 2025, 7:05 PM
- Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx
- Where to watch: MLB Network
MLB Betting Preview & Predictions: Padres vs Yankees
Moneyline: Yankees -144 | Total: 7.5
San Diego Padres Betting Outlook
San Diego comes into this three-game set at Yankee Stadium with the league’s best overall ERA (2.75), but that number dips significantly on the road. Their 4.15 ERA away from home has been just average, even though they recently swept the Pirates in Pittsburgh. Despite a middling 8-7 road record, they’ve now won four straight road games, capped by a dominant 4-0 shutout. That was their eighth shutout of the season but only their second away from home.
The Padres are hoping this road trip can swing momentum their way. Manny Machado has sparked the offense, going 8-for-21 in his last five outings, while Xander Bogaerts snapped a slump with three RBIs last game. Fernando Tatis Jr. is back in the lineup as well, which gives San Diego’s offense an added boost.
However, they’ll need more consistency if they want to overcome a Yankees team that’s been dangerous at home. Nick Pivetta (5-1, 1.78 ERA) has been sharp this year, but his lifetime 6.99 ERA against New York and a poor track record against Judge raises red flags for backers.
New York Yankees Betting Outlook
The Yankees return to the Bronx hoping to steady the ship after going just 5-7 in their last 12 games. Despite their recent slide, New York remains lethal at home, launching 37 of their 57 home runs at Yankee Stadium. They nearly erased a five-run deficit against the Rays on Sunday, showing some fight even in defeat.
Aaron Judge is in the middle of a scorching stretch he’s riding a 30-game on-base streak and a 14-game hit streak, hitting .474 over that span. With Carlos Rodon (4-3, 3.43 ERA) taking the mound, the Yankees have reason to be optimistic. Rodon has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his last three starts and boasts a 0.95 ERA during that stretch. He’s also been efficient against San Diego in the past, with a 2.88 career ERA against the Friars.
Prediction:
The Yankees’ edge at the plate in their home ballpark, paired with Rodon’s form and Pivetta’s poor history in the Bronx, makes New York the sharp side. The total could be tight with two quality arms, but edge leans Under 7.5.
Top Plays:
Pick: Yankees (-144)
Total: Under 7.5 (-105)
Final Score Prediction: Yankees 4, Padres 3
- MLB Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
