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Home Run Derby 2025 odds, picks, predictions
- When: Jul 14 2025, 8:00 PM
- Where: Truist Park, Atlanta
- Where to watch: ESPN
2025 Home Run Derby Preview: Dingers, Drama & Big Dumper Dreams
Hold onto your peanuts and Cracker Jack, folks, the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby is here, and it’s about to rain baseballs harder than your uncle’s BBQ playlist hits during the 7th inning stretch.
This year’s cast of slugging superstars features everything from future MVPs to a man who calls himself Big Dumper and, frankly, refuses to stop hitting baseballs into low orbit.
Home Run Derby Winner Odds
Cal Raleigh (SEA) +280
Oneil Cruz (PIT) +300
James Wood (WAS) +400
Matt Olson (ATL) +750
Byron Buxton (MIN) +800
Brent Rooker (ATH) +950
Junior Caminero (TB) +1000
Jazz Chisholm (NYY) +1300
The Headliner: Cal "Big Dumper" Raleigh
Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh enters this year’s Derby not just with the most home runs in the league, he’s got 38 of ‘em, but with the kind of power that makes pitchers wake up in cold sweats. His nickname may sound like a bathroom emergency, but trust us, this man dumps baseballs into the seats like he’s working overtime at a demolition site.
He’s the odds-on favorite at +280 to win it all, but there’s one small problem: no catcher has ever won the Home Run Derby. History is not on his side, but then again, neither is gravity.
The Young Guns: Wood, Cruz & Caminero
James Wood of the Nationals is 6’7″ with raw power, Hollywood cheekbones, and the kind of bat speed that could slice bread. He’s got 24 bombs this season and the longest blast in this field at 451 feet. Let’s just say if he connects, you’ll need binoculars to find the ball.
Then there’s Oneil Cruz of the Pirates. He’s basically a shortstop who hits like he’s got a personal grudge against baseballs. And Junior Caminero from the Rays? The kid can flat-out mash. Think of them as the Marvel Cinematic Universe of this year’s Derby: young, explosive, and always ready for a sequel.
The Hometown Hero: Matt Olson
Representing the Braves in his own yard, Matt Olson is the sentimental pick, and if you think home-field advantage doesn’t matter, just ask Bryce Harper (who won the Derby in D.C. back in 2018 while screaming like he was auditioning for Gladiator 2).
Olson’s got the power, the park familiarity, and probably half of Cobb County ready to faint if he puts one into the second deck.
How This Circus Works
Each slugger gets three minutes (or 40 pitches) in Round One. After that, it’s bonus time with a shot at an extra swing if they belt one 425+ feet.
In the semis and finals, it’s a fast-paced two-minute slugfest. If it’s tied? Oh baby, swing-off time. That’s right: no pitch clocks, no mercy, just bombs.
Our (Reckless) Prediction
Let’s be honest, predicting a Home Run Derby is like trying to guess what flavor of bubble gum a kid is about to step in. But here’s our shot:
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Raleigh has the raw numbers, but history might weigh down the Big Dumper.
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Olson is tempting, but hometown pressure is real (ask every Braves fan post-October).
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Our pick? James Wood. He’s got the juice, the distance, and the vibes.
Plus, at +400, he’s got value. If he channels his inner Soto or Harper, we could be looking at another Nationals prodigy lifting the Derby trophy.
Final Predictions:
Your TV: Exploded.
Your hotdog: Untouched.
Your jaw: Dropped.
Winner Prediction: James Wood belts 50+ and moonwalks his way into Derby history.
- MLB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get live odds & latest betting props here!
