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Boston (65-54) at Houston (66-52)
- When: Aug 11 2025, 8:10 PM
- Where: Daikin Park, Houston
- Where to watch: NESN
Red Sox vs. Astros – Game Betting Preview & Prediction
Moneyline: Boston -175
Spread: Boston -1.5 (+107)
Total: 7.5
Boston Red Sox Betting Outlook
The Red Sox roll into Houston as the -175 moneyline favorite with the total set at 7.5, looking to rebound after dropping three of their last four following a dominant seven-game winning streak. That hot stretch included a three-game sweep over these same Astros at Fenway.
Boston sends Garrett Crochet (13-4, 2.24 ERA) to the mound, the AL ERA leader and MLB’s innings workhorse. He’s unbeaten over his last 11 starts and owns six straight winning decisions, striking out 48 over his last 39 innings with a 2.77 ERA. While Crochet hasn’t beaten Houston in three career tries (0-2, 4.35 ERA), his current form makes Boston a dangerous favorite. Expect an aggressive approach early to support him, especially against a Houston starter shaking off 15 months of rust.
Houston Astros Betting Outlook
The Astros return home after a 4-5 road trip but gained key reinforcements — Carlos Correa is back via trade, Spencer Arrighetti is healthy, and Cristian Javier makes his first start since May 2024 following Tommy John surgery.
Despite an injury-riddled year, Houston holds a half-game AL West lead. Their offense gets a boost from recent acquisitions Jesus Sanchez and Ramon Urias, though Yordan Alvarez (hand) and Jake Meyers (calf) remain out. Javier has a 1-1 record and a 4.50 ERA lifetime vs. Boston and will be making just his first big-league appearance in nearly 15 months — a tough spot against one of the AL’s most consistent rotations.
Prediction & Betting Angle
Boston’s edge on the mound with Crochet’s elite form and Houston’s ace coming off a lengthy layoff tilts the matchup in the Sox’s favor. Still, Houston’s emotional homecoming for Correa could spark an early push. The lean: Boston 4, Houston 3, a tight, low-scoring game staying Under 7.5.
Score Prediction: Red Sox 4, Astros 3
Pick: Houston +1.5 (-127)
Total: Under 7.5 (-115)
- MLB Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
