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Phoenix (21-13) at Las Vegas (22-14)
- When: Aug 21 2025, 10:00 PM
- Where: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Paradise, NV, USA
- TV: AZFamily
Phoenix vs Las Vegas – WNBA Game Preview, Prediction and Player Props
Spread: Las Vegas -1.5 | Total: 171.5
Las Vegas Aces Betting Outlook
The Aces enter Thursday as slim 1.5-point favorites, with the total sitting at 171.5. Riding an eight-game winning streak, Las Vegas is peaking at just the right time, climbing into striking distance of the Mercury in the standings. Their latest escape came in dramatic fashion, trailing Atlanta by 10 in the fourth quarter, the Aces clamped down defensively and stormed back for a 74-72 win.
A’ja Wilson is the unstoppable engine behind this surge. Fresh off a monster performance (32 points, 12 rebounds, 5 blocks), she continues to cement her case as the league’s most dominant player. When the Aces lock in defensively like they did late against Atlanta, they look nearly unbeatable. At home, in front of a charged crowd, expect them to bring playoff-level intensity.
Aces Prop Pick: A’ja Wilson Over 24.5 Points — the reigning MVP is carrying the offense, and Phoenix doesn’t have a reliable defensive answer for her inside-out game.
Phoenix Mercury Betting Outlook
The Mercury aren’t rolling over either. At 21-13, Phoenix is on its best run since 2021 and closing in on clinching a winning season. They’ve responded well since falling to Vegas last week, picking up road wins at Seattle and Golden State. Their latest victory, a 98-91 triumph over the Valkyries, showcased both their offensive firepower and defensive resilience, shooting over 61 percent in the fourth quarter while clamping down after a shaky first half.
Kahleah Copper continues to be their spark plug, pouring in 25 points in the last outing. Paired with Satou Sabally’s all-around play, Phoenix has the tools to hang with the champs, though consistency on defense will be key. If they can limit Vegas’ transition scoring, the Mercury could very well flip the script in this rematch.
Mercury Prop Pick: Kahleah Copper Over 15.5 Points — she’s been the focal point of Phoenix’s offense, especially on the road, and will need another big outing to keep pace.
Prediction
Both teams enter with momentum, but Las Vegas has home-court advantage and a defense that locks in when it matters most. The Aces’ star power gives them a slight edge in what should be a back-and-forth battle.
Best Bet: Las Vegas -1.5
Toral: Over 171.5
Final Score Prediction: Las Vegas 89, Phoenix 84
- WNBA Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
