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NY Mets (76-69) at Philadelphia (85-60)
- When: Sep 10 2025, 6:45 PM
- Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
- Where to watch: SNY
Mets vs Phillies – Game Preview, Prediction and Player Props
Moneyline: Philadelphia -175
Total: 7.5
RunLine: Philadelphia -1.5 (+125)
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Outlook
The Phillies (85-60) are rolling at the right time, winners of nine of their last 12, and now holding a commanding nine-game lead over the Mets in the NL East. Tuesday’s 9-3 win was highlighted by Kyle Schwarber’s 50th homer of the season, just the second time in franchise history a player has reached that milestone.
Cristopher Sánchez (12-5, 2.60 ERA) takes the mound, looking like a legitimate Cy Young contender. He’s been in elite form lately, tossing seven innings of one-run ball in each of his last two starts against Atlanta and Miami. The lefty has struggled historically against New York, with a 2-4 record and 4.63 ERA in 11 appearances, but current form suggests he’s pitching on another level.
Phillies Prop Pick: Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Total Bases – Riding the momentum of his 50th homer, he’s a constant extra-base threat.
New York Mets Betting Outlook
The Mets (76-69) are reeling, dropping two straight in Philly and eight of their last 12 overall. While they still cling to the final NL Wild Card spot, their offense has been inconsistent and their strikeout issues glaring, Pete Alonso and Juan Soto combined for six Ks in Tuesday’s loss.
Clay Holmes (11-7, 3.61 ERA) will make his first career start against the Phillies. Historically used as a reliever versus Philadelphia, he has a 6.75 ERA across five appearances. Holmes hasn’t pitched deep into games lately, going beyond five innings just once in his last eight outings, which puts extra strain on an already shaky bullpen.
Mets Prop Pick: Pete Alonso Over 0.5 Home Runs – When the Mets need a spark, Alonso remains their most dangerous bat.
MLB Prediction & Betting Angle
Philadelphia enters as the -175 moneyline favorite, with the total set at 7.5 runs. The Phillies are surging at the plate, while Sánchez has been dominant against top-tier competition. The Mets, meanwhile, have struggled to keep pace offensively and may lean too heavily on a starter who isn’t built for length. Philadelphia stays hot, Sánchez controls the tempo and the Mets continue to slide, tightening the pressure in the Wild Card race.
Final Score Prediction: Phillies 6, Mets 3
Lean: Philadelphia -1.5 (+125)
Total: Over 7.5 (-115)
- MLB Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
