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Tampa Bay (1-0-0) at Houston (0-1-0)
- When: Sep 15 2025, 7:00 PM
- Where: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
- Where to watch: ABC/ESPN
- Last Meeting: HOU 39-37, November 5th, 2023
Tampa Bay vs Houston Preview & Prediction
Spread: Houston -2.5
Moneyline: Houston (-150)
Total: 42.5
Houston Texans Betting Outlook
The Texans return home as 2.5-point favorites with the total set at 42.5, looking to bounce back from a disappointing 14–9 Week 1 loss to the Rams in which their offense failed to reach the end zone.
Head coach DeMeco Ryans doesn’t often reflect on the past, but he couldn’t help recalling last year’s thriller against Tampa Bay, when C.J. Stroud threw for 470 yards and five touchdowns in a 39–37 victory. That comeback cemented Stroud’s status as the leader of this team and showed the foundation Ryans is building around him.
This week, Houston needs Stroud to find rhythm with top target Nico Collins, who was held to just 25 yards on three catches in the opener. With Tank Dell sidelined for the season, Collins becomes even more critical to the passing game. Nick Chubb led the ground attack in Week 1 with 60 rushing yards, but Houston must establish balance to avoid another stalled offensive performance.
At home, where Collins has scored the majority of his touchdowns, the Texans should have a chance to rebound. Their defensive front will also be tested against Tampa Bay’s power run game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Outlook
Tampa Bay enters off a dramatic 23–20 win over Atlanta, where Baker Mayfield delivered a game-winning touchdown in the final minute. The Bucs showed the same toughness that carried them late last season, with head coach Todd Bowles praising their ability to withstand mistakes and fatigue.
Their defensive front remains the identity of the team. Anchored by Vita Vea, Tampa Bay held the Falcons to only 69 rushing yards on 24 attempts. With Bijan Robinson bottled up, the Bucs proved they can still shut down elite running backs, and they’ll try to apply that same formula against Nick Chubb.
Offensively, Mike Evans continues to lead the way, but injuries to Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan elevate Sterling Shepard into a bigger role alongside rookie Emeka Egbuka. Shepard’s chemistry with Mayfield dates back to their Oklahoma days, and he delivered three catches for 39 yards in the opener. That trust could be valuable in tight situations against Houston.
Prediction & Betting Angle
Houston is favored by less than a field goal, but their Week 1 offensive struggles raise questions about consistency. Stroud has the weapons to turn it around at home, especially if Collins gets going, but Tampa Bay’s defensive front poses a real challenge.
The Buccaneers, fresh off a comeback win, bring momentum and a run defense that could control the tempo. If Mayfield continues to deliver in crunch time and Evans exploits matchups, Tampa Bay has a path to an upset.
Best Bet: Buccaneers moneyline looks like the sharper side with their defense and balance.
Final Score: Buccaneers 24, Texans 20
Lean: Tampa Bay (+130)
Total: Over 42.5
- NFL Football Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
