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NY Mets (80-76) at Chi. Cubs (88-68)
- When: Sep 23 2025, 7:40 PM
- Where: Wrigley Field, Chicago
- Where to watch: Marquee Sports Network-Chicago
Mets vs Cubs – Game Preview, Prediction and Player Props
Moneyline: Chi. Cubs -127
Total: 7.5
RunLine: Chi. Cubs -1.5 (+168)
New York Mets Betting Outlook
The Mets arrive in Chicago clinging to postseason hopes, but their recent skid is brutal: 11 losses in their last 15 games. Once boasting the best record in baseball, they’ve collapsed to a 35-52 stretch since mid-June. Now tied with Cincinnati in the standings, they trail the Reds for the final NL wild-card slot due to the head-to-head tiebreaker.
David Peterson (9-6, 3.98 ERA) gets the ball, but his recent form is shaky. Over his last four starts, he’s been tagged for 21 earned runs in just 17 1/3 innings. His career numbers against Chicago aren’t encouraging either, with a 1-2 record and a 4.91 ERA in five starts.
The Mets desperately need Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo to ignite the lineup. Lindor stressed urgency after Sunday’s loss to Washington, but urgency only matters if production follows.
Mets Player Prop Pick: Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 Total Bases – the heart of New York’s lineup must spark some offense in this must-win series.
Chicago Cubs Betting Outlook
Chicago enters with playoff security in sight, holding a three-game cushion over San Diego for the top NL wild-card slot. While the division crown is out of reach, the Cubs are pushing for home-field advantage in the wild-card round.
Cade Horton (11-4, 2.66 ERA) continues to impress in his rookie campaign. The 24-year-old is on a tear, going 8-1 with a microscopic 0.93 ERA over his last 11 outings. Against the Mets earlier this year, Horton made his MLB debut in relief and allowed three runs across four innings, far removed from the dominant pitcher he’s become since joining the rotation.
Even after being swept by Cincinnati, the Cubs remain confident. Manager Craig Counsell emphasized the importance of finishing strong to lock in home field, and this is exactly the kind of matchup where Chicago can bounce back.
Cubs Player Prop Pick: Ian Happ Over 1.5 Total Bases – Happ’s switch-hitting power and ability to work gaps make him a reliable bat to drive Chicago’s offense in this spot
MLB Prediction & Betting Angle
The Cubs are priced as -127 moneyline favorites with the total set at 7.5. With Horton surging and Peterson reeling, the advantage tilts clearly to Chicago. The Mets’ playoff desperation makes them dangerous, but their offense hasn’t shown enough to inspire confidence.
Back the Cubs at home on the moneyline, with the total leaning slightly Over thanks to New York’s shaky pitching.
Final Score Prediction: Cubs 5, Mets 3
Lean: Chi. Cubs (-127)
Total: Over 7.5 (-105)
- MLB Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
