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NY Mets (82-78) at Miami (78-82)
- When: Sep 27 2025, 4:10 PM
- Where: loanDepot park, Miami
- Where to watch: SNY
Mets vs. Marlins – Game Betting Preview & Prediction
Moneyline: NY Mets -133
Spread: NY Mets -1.5 (+125)
Total: 8.5
New York Mets Betting Outlook
The Mets are hanging by a thread in the playoff race, and Saturday night’s matchup is do-or-die territory. After dropping a crushing 6-2 loss to Miami on Friday, New York no longer controls its postseason fate. The team with the league’s biggest payroll hasn’t lived up to expectations, and their pitching woes since June have been a huge part of the story.
Clay Holmes (11-8, 3.66 ERA) gets the call, and while he’s had some success against Miami in relief outings, his shift to the rotation has been rocky. The Mets have cycled through 17 different starters this season, a revolving door that’s left them vulnerable down the stretch. With Cincinnati applying pressure in the wild-card race, the Mets must lean on Holmes to deliver stability in this critical spot.
Prediction angle for New York: Expect urgency from the bats and a desperate push to bounce back, but shaky pitching remains the wild card.
Miami Marlins Betting Outlook
The Marlins may be eliminated from contention, but they’re relishing their spoiler role. With the lowest payroll in baseball, Miami still managed a 16-win improvement over last year, setting a franchise record for year-over-year growth outside shortened seasons.
Eury Perez (7-5, 4.20 ERA) starts for Miami, though his track record against the Mets is ugly. In two career starts, he’s been lit up for 17.18 ERA, including a disastrous outing earlier this year where he didn’t escape the first inning. That said, Miami has managed to take six of eleven meetings from New York this season, showing they’ve been able to frustrate their division rivals consistently.
Prediction angle for Miami: The Marlins aren’t playing for October, but they’re playing with pride and that can make them dangerous.
Betting Outlook & Prediction
The Mets are in desperation mode, but the Marlins are motivated to close out strong and spoil the party. With shaky rotations on both sides, the value leans toward New York pulling out a high-scoring win to keep their hopes alive.
Score Prediction: Mets 6, Marlins 4
Pick: NY Mets -1.5 (+125)
Total: Over 8.5 (-111)
- MLB Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
