- This page contains affiliate links. We may earn a commission at no extra cost to you.
Pittsburgh (13-7-5) at Tampa Bay (16-8-2)
- When: Dec 4 2025, 7:00 PM
- Where: Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL, USA
- TV: The Spot
Pittsburgh vs Tampa Bay NHL Preview & Pick
Moneyline: Tampa Bay -195
Spread: Tampa Bay -1.5 (+127)
Total: 6.0
Pittsburgh Penguins Betting Breakdown
The Penguins continue to hang around in the playoff picture thanks almost entirely to the ageless magic of Sidney Crosby. At 38, he is dragging this team uphill with a scoring pace that looks more like someone in his prime than a vet nearing 40. With 18 goals in 25 games, Crosby is sitting near the top of the league leaderboard and powering an offense that would otherwise be pretty thin.
Pittsburgh comes into this matchup off a convincing 5 to 1 win over the Flyers in which they controlled the pace, rolled four lines, and allowed Crosby to dictate the game from start to finish. His leadership and consistency are the biggest reason the Penguins are outperforming preseason expectations.
Evgeni Malkin remains the primary setup man with 20 assists and 26 points, while Bryan Rust continues to deliver timely scoring and energy. The Penguins are not a deep scoring team, but they can be dangerous when their top players are rolling.
From a gambling angle, the question is whether Pittsburgh can generate enough offense against a Tampa Bay club that rarely loses at home and has one of the most disciplined blue lines in the league. Pittsburgh’s best chance is to slow the pace, lean on Crosby’s red hot form, and hope their supporting cast holds up.
Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Breakdown
Tampa Bay finally had its seven game heater snapped in a tight 2 to 1 loss on the road, but that defeat said more about the brilliance of Ilya Sorokin than it did about the Lightning. They pushed the Islanders for most of the night and controlled long stretches of play.
Before that hiccup, Tampa Bay had won 10 of 13 and has been one of the most efficient offensive teams in the league. Nikita Kucherov continues to operate at an MVP level with 32 points in 24 games, and he is one point away from recording his fourth straight calendar season with 100 points. Only McDavid and Draisaitl have matched that in the modern era.
Brandon Hagel deserves credit as well, stacking up 27 points and previously riding a blistering five game streak before Tuesday’s loss. Tampa Bay’s top six is firing, their special teams are sharp, and their structure under Jon Cooper is as tight as ever. Even after the streak ended, this is a team trending in the right direction.
At home, the Lightning are usually a tough fade, especially against opponents that rely heavily on one or two players for offense. Tampa Bay’s ability to roll waves of skill plus defensive stability makes them the safer side.
Final Betting Prediction
Tampa Bay enters this matchup with the deeper roster, steadier scoring, and a far more reliable defensive structure. Pittsburgh is overachieving, but leaning on Crosby to carry the load against a Lightning team that rarely slips at home is a tough ask. Expect Tampa Bay’s firepower and discipline to set the tone while Pittsburgh struggles to keep pace for a full sixty minutes. The total sits in a range where both offenses can contribute, especially with Tampa Bay’s elite finishing.
Score Prediction: Lightning 4, Penguins 2
Pick: Tampa Bay -1.5 (+127)
Total: Under 6.5 Alt Lines (-135)
- NHL Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
