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Atlanta (4-9-0) at Tampa Bay (7-6-0)
- When: Dec 11 2025, 8:15 PM
- Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
- Where to watch: Amazon Prime Video
- Last Meeting: TB 23-20, September 7th, 2025
Atlanta vs Tampa Bay Preview & Prediction
Spread: Tampa Bay -4.5
Moneyline: Tampa Bay (-253)
Total: 44.0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Outlook
Tampa Bay enters Thursday night as a 4.5 point home favorite with a Total sitting at 44.5, and the Bucs absolutely need this win to steady their fading division hopes. What looked like a smooth path to another NFC South title turned messy after three straight losses to playoff caliber opponents, a shaky escape against Arizona, and an embarrassing home defeat to New Orleans.
The Bucs still control the division if they win out, and they get a major boost with Mike Evans returning from a broken clavicle and Jalen McMillan making his season debut. Baker Mayfield has been battling a shoulder issue, which explains his dip in production, but Tampa expects him to look sharper with his full complement of receivers back.
Defensively, the Bucs want to force Kirk Cousins into long third downs and challenge Atlanta’s weak conversion rate. Their run defense is usually sturdy, though they have allowed big individual rushing nights this season. Tampa needs discipline and field position control to avoid giving Atlanta cheap points through special teams breakdowns.
Tampa Bay Player Prop Pick: Mike Evans over 49.5 receiving yards. His return should immediately boost the passing game, and he typically sees heavy volume in big divisional moments.
Atlanta Falcons Betting Outlook
Atlanta comes in at 4-9, out of the playoff picture and embracing the spoiler role. Kirk Cousins is back under center due to Michael Penix Jr.’s season ending injury, but he has not rediscovered last year’s form. Cousins torched Tampa twice a season ago, yet his current stint includes more hesitation, fewer explosive throws and only three touchdowns in four starts.
The Falcons do still possess one major weapon in Bijan Robinson, who leads the league in scrimmage yards. However, he has never truly broken open a game against Tampa, averaging under four yards per carry in past meetings. Atlanta’s biggest issue continues to be third down inefficiency, ranking second worst in the NFL, which makes sustained drives scarce.
Special teams have also turned into a liability, with last week featuring a kickoff return allowed for a touchdown and a blocked field goal. Against a desperate Tampa team, giving up field position or momentum swings could quickly unravel the game.
Atlanta Player Prop Pick: Bijan Robinson over 4.5 receptions. When Atlanta trails, they lean on him heavily as a check down option.
Expert Betting Outlook & NFL Prediction
Tampa Bay is healthier, at home and playing with real urgency. Atlanta has struggled to execute in key situations and continues to sabotage itself with special teams errors and stalled drives. Even if the Falcons start fast, the Bucs have more firepower and motivation late.
Final Score: Buccaneers 27, Falcons 17
Lean: Tampa Bay -4.5
Total: Uder 44.5
- NFL Football Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
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