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Michigan State (12-1) vs Nebraska (13-0)
- When: Jan 2 2026, 9:00 PM
- Where: Pinnacle Bank Arena, Lincoln, NE, USA
- Where to watch: Peacock
(9) Michigan State vs (13) Nebraska Preview & Prediction
Spread: Nebraska -2.5
Moneyline: Nebraska (-150)
Total: 143.0
Nebraska Riding a Heater Longer Than a Midwest Winter
Lincoln is about to host a Big Ten showdown that feels less like a basketball game and more like a scientific experiment to see how long Nebraska can stay on fire. The Cornhuskers are 13 and 0, winners of 17 straight dating back to last season, and currently operating with the confidence of a team that thinks rims are optional. Nebraska is favored by 2.5 with a total sitting at 144.0, which feels about right considering both teams occasionally forget defense exists.
Nebraska has not exactly been a fast starter lately, though. They have treated first halves like warmup sessions, spotting North Dakota and New Hampshire early leads before flipping the switch and burying them after halftime. Think of it as Nebraska politely letting opponents feel hope before confiscating it. Coach Fred Hoiberg does not love the slow starts, but his team keeps responding like a veteran poker player who waits patiently before pushing all the chips in.
Offensively, Nebraska brings balance and confidence. Rienk Mast and Pryce Sandfort both average 16.5 points and neither looks fazed by pressure. The Cornhuskers also added size with Ugnius Jarusevicius making his debut, which matters because Michigan State tends to roll out lineups that look like they were assembled at a height requirement tryout.
Michigan State Brings Chaos and Depth
Michigan State arrives at 12 and 1, fresh off a game where they scored 114 points and allowed 97, which Tom Izzo probably still talks about in his sleep. The Spartans have beaten Kentucky, Arkansas, and North Carolina, and they play ten guys regularly, which is Izzo speak for I trust everyone but also trust no one.
Jaxon Kohler has been the steady presence, putting up nightly double doubles while somehow shooting nearly 47 percent from three as a big man. Michigan State wants to outscore people lately, even though Izzo keeps reminding everyone that defense is supposed to be their personality. This team can explode offensively, but they can also give up runs that make fans reach for the stress snacks.
The Spartans have dominated this matchup historically, winning 12 of the last 13 meetings, but Nebraska defended its home floor last time and Lincoln has a way of turning visiting teams into nervous tourists.
Gambling Angle and Prediction
Nebraska at home with this kind of momentum is hard to fade. Michigan State has the depth and experience to keep it close, but Nebraska’s balance and second half surges feel very real. Expect a competitive first half followed by Nebraska pulling away late once the crowd gets loud and the legs get heavy.
That sneaks under the total and keeps the Cornhuskers perfect, while Michigan State heads home wondering how Nebraska turned Lincoln into a basketball furnace.
Final Score: Nebraska 74, Michigan State 68
Lean: Nebraska -2.5
Total: Under 144.0
- NCAAB Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
