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Toronto (27-21-9) at Tampa Bay (37-14-4)
- When: Feb 25 2026, 7:30 PM
- Where: Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL, USA
- TV: TNT
Toronto vs Tampa Bay NHL Preview & Pick
Moneyline: Tampa Bay -225
Spread: Tampa Bay -1.5 (+115)
Total: 6.0
You are getting a heavyweight Atlantic Division matchup with playoff implications written all over it. Tampa Bay sits as a -225 moneyline favorite, and the total is posted at 6.0. Let’s break this one down from a betting lens.
Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Breakdown
Toronto welcomes back its captain riding a major emotional boost. Auston Matthews returns from international play with Olympic gold around his neck, and that kind of momentum can ripple through a locker room. Matthews leads the Leafs with 26 goals and sits second on the team with 48 points, trailing only William Nylander. He contributed on the biggest stage overseas and now shifts focus back to a tight Eastern Conference race.
The Leafs have won three straight and are clawing for position in the wild-card picture. With 25 games remaining, every point matters. They’re tied in the standings and chasing a playoff berth, so urgency won’t be an issue.
The key question from a betting standpoint is consistency. Toronto has shown flashes of high-end offense, but defensive lapses have cost them at times. They did shut out Tampa Bay 2-0 back in December behind an unlikely goaltending performance, but that result feels more like an outlier than a trend.
Toronto’s recent form is solid, but they’re walking into a building where the Lightning typically dictate pace and generate strong special teams pressure.
Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Breakdown
Tampa Bay enters this one red hot with five consecutive wins, including a dominant 6-1 victory over Florida before the break. They’ve climbed to the top of the Atlantic Division despite battling injuries on the blue line all season.
Victor Hedman is expected to be available, which is huge for a defense that has already endured extended absences from multiple regulars. Even with those issues, Tampa has remained structured and dangerous offensively.
Their power play ranks 12th at 22.4 percent, and Darren Raddysh has stepped up with 17 goals and 35 assists in 49 games, giving them unexpected production from the back end.
At home, Tampa Bay plays with pace, forechecks aggressively, and forces teams into mistakes. They’ve also been more reliable defensively during this win streak, limiting quality looks and controlling possession stretches.
NHL Prediction and Betting Outlook
Tampa Bay is at -225 is a strong number, but it reflects current form and home-ice advantage. Toronto has momentum, but Tampa is deeper, healthier than they’ve been in weeks, and sharper overall.
The total of 6.0 feels fair. Toronto can score, but Tampa has tightened up defensively. This projects more like a controlled playoff-style matchup than a wide-open track meet.
Lean toward Tampa Bay on the puckline and slight lean to the Under 6.5 alternate lines given Tampa’s defensive structure and playoff-style intensity.
Score Prediction: Lightning 4, Maple Leafs 2
Pick: Tampa Bay -1.5 (+115)
Total: Under 6.5 Alt Line (-130)
- NHL Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
