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Michigan State (22-5) vs Purdue (22-5)
- When: Feb 26 2026, 8:00 PM
- Where: Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, IN, USA
- Where to watch: Peacock
(13) Michigan State vs (8) Purdue Preview & Prediction
Spread: Purdue -7.5
Moneyline: Purdue (-345)
Total: 142.0
Purdue Boilermakers Betting Breakdown
There was a time when a late season meeting between Purdue and Michigan State would decide the Big Ten crown. Not this year. Michigan sits clear at the top, leaving Purdue and the Spartans to scrap for seeding, pride and positioning. Do not mistake that for a meaningless spot. In March, seeds matter. Momentum matters more.
Purdue enters at 22-5 overall and 12-4 in conference play, fresh off a 93-64 demolition of Indiana. That was a needed response after a 91-80 home loss to Michigan effectively ended their title hopes. Since then, they have won five of six and look locked back in.
This is an experienced group. Braden Smith continues to orchestrate at an elite level, averaging 8.7 assists per game and sitting fifth all time with 994 career assists. His command of tempo is everything in a matchup with a 142.0 total. Fletcher Loyer and Trey Kaufman-Renn provide spacing and interior balance, but it all begins with Smith’s decision making.
At Mackey Arena, Purdue has dominated this rivalry. Michigan State has not won there since 2014 and has dropped five straight in the building. That matters when Purdue is laying 7.5 points. They are comfortable at home, and they dictate pace.
Player Prop: Braden Smith Over 7.5 Assists – Michigan State’s defensive attention will tilt toward shooters and paint touches. Smith’s passing volume in a structured half court game should translate into opportunities, especially at home.
Michigan State Spartans Betting Breakdown
Michigan State also sits at 22-5 and 12-4 in league play, but their résumé is missing a true road statement. They have lost their last two away from home and now walk into one of the toughest venues in the country.
Jeremy Fears is the engine. He leads the nation with 9.2 assists per game and thrives in ball screen reads. The duel between Fears and Smith is as good as it gets at the point guard spot. If Fears controls tempo, the Spartans can hang around.
Tom Izzo knows the stakes. While a banner is off the table, tournament positioning is not. The Spartans are coming off consecutive home wins over UCLA and Ohio State, but finishing strong against a brutal closing stretch is critical.
The concern from a betting lens is offensive consistency on the road. Mackey Arena forces rushed possessions and magnifies turnovers. If Michigan State gets stagnant late in shot clocks, Purdue can create separation.
Player Prop: Jeremy Fears Over 8.5 Assists – Fears handles the ball on nearly every meaningful possession. Even in a hostile environment, his usage rate and passing volume should remain high.
Expert Final Score Prediction
Purdue’s home dominance and backcourt stability give them the edge. Michigan State will compete, but Mackey Arena has been a consistent problem. Expect a physical, half court battle with possessions valued.
Experience, home court, and late game execution tip this in Purdue’s favor while the tempo keeps scoring controlled.
Final Score: Purdue 74, Michigan State 65
Lean: Purdue -7.5
Total: Udner 142.0
- NCAAB Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
