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Buffalo (34-19-6) at Tampa Bay (38-15-4)
- When: Feb 28 2026, 7:00 PM
- Where: Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL, USA
- TV: The Spot
Buffalo vs Tampa Bay NHL Preview & Pick
Moneyline: Tampa Bay -235
Spread: Tampa Bay -1.5 (+107)
Total: 6.5
Buffalo Sabres Betting Breakdown
Buffalo rolls into Tampa with confidence and legitimate playoff momentum. The Sabres have extended their road point streak to eight games at 7-0-1, which is not noise this late in the season. When a team consistently earns points away from home, it becomes dangerous as an underdog.
The Sabres sit with 74 points, good for third in the Eastern Conference, and the urgency is obvious. Tage Thompson has made it clear that every point matters now. That mindset shows up on the ice. Buffalo just knocked off Florida 3-2, continuing to prove they can grind out tight games.
Alex Tuch leads the charge offensively with 23 goals, while Peyton Krebs sealed the last win with an empty-netter. Buffalo is not just trading chances. They are managing situations and protecting leads. That matters when evaluating the total of 6.5.
Injury wise, Zach Benson could return after missing time with an upper-body issue and illness. Even if he is eased back in, Buffalo’s depth has held up well. Their structure on the road has been sharp, and they are comfortable playing low-event hockey when needed.
From a betting perspective, the Sabres bring value as a sizable underdog. They are not intimidated by top competition, and their road form suggests they can hang around deep into the third period.
Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Breakdown
Tampa Bay enters as a heavy Moneyline favorite at -235, and that price reflects two things: elite home dominance and top-end skill. The Lightning have won 10 straight on home ice and average nearly four goals per game. That offensive ceiling drives the 6.5 total.
Nikita Kucherov is on an absolute heater, riding a 12-game point streak with eight goals and 20 assists during that span. He leads the team with 95 points. Jake Guentzel sits at 63 points, and Brandon Hagel has already buried 28 goals. Brayden Point continues to provide timely scoring, recently netting his 14th of the season.
Tampa’s six-game winning streak ended against Carolina, but the comeback effort from 3-0 down showed resilience. Even without head coach Jon Cooper behind the bench, the group has remained composed and dangerous.
The Lightning’s ability to score in waves makes them extremely tough at home. If they dictate pace early, Buffalo could be forced out of its comfort zone.
NHL Betting Prediction
The total at 6.5 is well placed given Tampa’s offensive output, but Buffalo’s recent road discipline suggests a tighter contest than the price implies.
Tampa Bay deserves to be favored at home. Their depth, star power and home ice dominance give them the edge.
Lean toward Tampa Bay on the Puckline at plus money and a slight lean to the under 6.5 if Buffalo slows the tempo and keeps this structured.
Score Prediction: Lightning 4, Sabres 2
Pick: Tampa Bay -1.5 (+107)
Total: Under 6.5 (-120)
- NHL Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
