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Iowa State (27-6) vs Arizona (30-2)
- When: Mar 13 2026, 7:00 PM
- Where: T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, MO, USA
- Where to watch: ESPN
(7) Iowa State vs (2) Arizona Preview & Prediction
Spread: Arizona -4.0
Moneyline: Arizona (-192)
Total: 143.5
Arizona Wildcats Betting Breakdown
Ah sure, when two heavy hitters collide in March, you know you’re in for a proper basketball battle. The Arizona Wildcats arrive in the Big 12 semifinal flying high after a dominant regular season and a convincing tournament start. Arizona, ranked No. 2 nationally, improved to 30-2 after dismantling UCF 81-59 in the quarterfinals, stretching their winning streak to seven games.
The Wildcats wasted little time asserting control in that contest, racing out to a staggering 35-8 lead midway through the first half. Brayden Burries spearheaded the charge with 21 points, showcasing the scoring depth that has made Arizona one of the most dangerous offenses in the country.
Arizona already handled Iowa State earlier this month, securing a 73-57 victory at home on March 2. Big 12 Player of the Year Jaden Bradley contributed 17 points in that game, while the Wildcats dominated the glass 40-33 and held the Cyclones to just 29.2 percent shooting from the field.
Tommy Lloyd’s squad thrives on balance and discipline. Arizona attacks the boards aggressively and forces opponents into uncomfortable offensive possessions. When the Wildcats control the pace and win the rebounding battle, they tend to dictate the outcome.
ArizonaPlayer Prop Pick: – Brayden Burries Over 16.5 Points – Brayden Burries continues to thrive in high stakes moments, and after dropping 21 points in the last game he should remain a central offensive option. With Arizona pushing tempo and generating quality looks, the value leans toward Over 16.5 in this semifinal clash.
Iowa State Cyclones Betting Breakdown
Now don’t go counting out the Cyclones just yet. Iowa State enters the semifinal brimming with confidence after two emphatic tournament victories. The Cyclones followed up a record setting 49 point win over Arizona State with a dominant 75-53 triumph against Texas Tech.
Joshua Jefferson has been the engine behind Iowa State’s recent surge. The versatile forward recorded double-doubles in both tournament games and was outstanding against Texas Tech with 18 points, 13 rebounds and six assists. His physical presence on the glass helped Iowa State win the rebounding battle 39-29.
Tamin Lipsey also stepped up offensively in that victory, knocking down four three pointers on his way to 20 points. Iowa State’s ability to stay composed was evident after falling behind 17-5 early before storming back with defensive pressure and efficient shot making.
The Cyclones know Arizona presents a serious challenge after their earlier loss, but their recent form suggests this matchup could be far more competitive the second time around.
Iowa State Player Prop Pick: Joshua Jefferson Over 8.5 Rebounds – Jefferson has been a rebounding machine during the tournament and continues to impact every possession. Given his recent double-double performances and heavy minutes, a strong betting angle is Over 8.5 RB.
Expert Picks & Final Score Prediction
Arizona enters the matchup as a 4 point favorite with the total set at 143.5. The Wildcats have already proven they match up well against Iowa State, particularly on the boards and defensively.
Still, the Cyclones are playing their best basketball of the season right now, which suggests this contest should be tighter than the regular season meeting. Arizona’s depth and offensive balance should ultimately prove decisive down the stretch.
Final Score: Arizona 76, Iowa State 70
Lean: Arizona -4.0
Total: Over 143.5
- NCAAB Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
