Alcaraz vs Paul US Open Odds, Prediction and Best Bet

(Photo by Getty Images) Tommy Paul

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Paul vs Alcaraz US Open Matchup

Matchup: (20) Tommy Paul vs (2) Carlos Alcaraz
When:  Sep 6 2026, at 2:00 PM – approximately
Tournament:  US Open
Stage:  Round of 16
Venue: Arthur Ashe Stadium
Location: New York City, New York

Tennis Match Odds, Spread, Moneyline & Total

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Game Spread
Tommy Paul   5.5 (-110)
Carlos Alcaraz    -5.5 (-120)

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Moneyline
Tommy Paul   +350
Carlos Alcaraz    -450

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Total
Over   36.0 (-115)
Under   36.0 (-115)

Go to the Prediction here
(Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!)

Paul vs Alcaraz ATP Tennis Preview

Carlos Alcaraz faces Tommy Paul in the US Open Round of 16, with the defending champion entering fresher after dropping just one set through three rounds. Alcaraz is riding a 17-match Grand Slam winning streak and just cruised past Yibing Wu in straight sets.

Paul survived a five-set battle with Alexander Bublik, so fatigue could become a major factor if this goes long. The American will have Arthur Ashe Stadium behind him, but Alcaraz’s speed, variety and ability to turn defense into offense create a difficult matchup. The Alcaraz moneyline is expensive, making the game spread or set markets more attractive.

Paul vs Alcaraz Matchups Props

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Game Spread
Tommy Paul – S1   1.5 (+125)
Carlos Alcaraz  – S1   -1.5 (-165)

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Moneyline
Tommy Paul – S1   +190
Carlos Alcaraz  – S1   -260

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Total
Over – S1   8.5 (-325)
Under – S1   8.5 (+230)

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Match Specials
Paul To Win & Over 43.5 Total Games   +700
Paul To Win & Under 43.5 Total Games   +650
Alcaraz To Win & Over 35.5 Total Games   +125
Alcaraz To Win & Under 35.5 Total Games   +130
Paul To Win Every Set 6-0, 6-1 or 6-2   +200000
Paul To Win Every Set 6-3 or 6-4   +21500
Paul To Win Every Set 7-5 or 7-6   +55000
Paul To Win Every Set 7-6   +125000
Alcaraz To Win Every Set 6-0, 6-1 or 6-2   +14000
Alcaraz To Win Every Set 6-3 or 6-4   +2200
Alcaraz To Win Every Set 7-5 or 7-6   +15000
Alcaraz To Win Every Set 7-6   +45000
Match To Go To A Final Set Tie Break   +1400
Paul To Break Serve In The 1st Set   -115
Alcaraz To Break Serve In The 1st Set   -400
Both Players To Break Serve In The 1st Set   +155
Paul To Break Serve In Sets 1 & 2   +235
Alcaraz To Break Serve In Sets 1 & 2   -180
Paul To Win A Point In Each of His First 4 Return Games   +110
Alcaraz To Win A Point In Each of His First 4 Return Games   -160
Over 19.5 Total Games In Set 1 & 2 Combined   -105
Under 19.5 Total Games In Set 1 & 2 Combined   -125
Paul To Win His 1st Service Game, 1st Set & Match   +550
Alcaraz To Win His 1st Service Game, 1st Set & Match   -170
Paul To Break Serve 1st, Win 1st Set & Match   +650
Alcaraz To Break Serve 1st, Win 1st Set & Match   -150
Paul To Win & A Tie Break In the Match   +550
Paul To Win & No Tie Break In the Match   +1000
Alcaraz To Win & A Tie Break In the Match   +125
Alcaraz To Win & No Tie Break In the Match   +130
Paul To Win & A Tie Break In the 1st Set   +1500
Alcaraz To Win & A Tie Break In the 1st Set   +475
Paul To Lead 3-1 After 4 Games In Sets 1 & 2   +3500
Paul To Lead 4-2 After 6 Games In Sets 1 & 2   +2800
Alcaraz To Lead 3-1 After 4 Games In Sets 1 & 2   +800
Alcaraz To Lead 4-2 After 6 Games In Sets 1 & 2   +700
Paul To Win 1st Set 7-6 & Win The Match   +2000
Alcaraz To Win 1st Set 7-6 & Win The Match   +675
Paul To Win 1st Set 6-0 & Win The Match   +15000
Alcaraz To Win 1st Set 6-0 & Win The Match   +3500
Paul To Win The First 8 Points of The Match   +30000
Alcaraz To Win The First 8 Points of The Match   +15000
Each of The 1st Two Sets To End In A Tie Break   +2200
1-1 After 2 Games In Each Of The 1st 2 Sets   -135
2-2 After 4 Games In Each Of The 1st 2 Sets   +220
3-3 After 6 Games In Each Of The 1st 2 Sets   +375
Both Players To Win A Set & No Tie Break In The Match   +325
Both Players To Win A Set & A Tie Break In The Match   +135
Both Players To Win A Set & 2+ Tie Breaks In The Match   +500
Over 8.5 Games In Each of Sets 1 & 2   -180
Over 9.5 Games In Each of Sets 1 & 2   +195
Over 10.5 Games In Each of Sets 1 & 2   +950
Under 8.5 Games In Each of Sets 1 & 2   +1300
Under 9.5 Games In Each of Sets 1 & 2   +300
Under 10.5 Games In Each of Sets 1 & 2   -130
No Breaks of Serve In Set 1   +650
No Breaks of Serve In Set 2   +650
Paul To Win & 2+ Tie Breaks In The Match   +1400
Alcaraz To Win & 2+ Tie Breaks In The Match   +425
Paul To Win Every Set 6-0, 6-1, 6-2, 6-3 or 6-4   +8500
Alcaraz To Win Every Set 6-0, 6-1, 6-2, 6-3 or 6-4   +550

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Alternate Total Games
Over   34.5 (-135)
Under   34.5 (+105)
Over   35.0 (-135)
Under   35.0 (+105)
Over   35.5 (-125)
Under   35.5 (-105)
Over   36.5 (-105)
Under   36.5 (-125)
Over   37.0 (EVEN)
Under   37.0 (-130)
Over   37.5 (+105)
Under   37.5 (-135)

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Alternate Total Games
Over – S1   10.5 (+265)
Under – S1   10.5 (-385)
Over – S1   12.5 (+450)
Under – S1   12.5 (-750)

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Total Games O/U – Carlos Alcaraz 
Over   20.0 (-115)
Under   20.0 (-115)

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Total Games O/U – Tommy Paul
Over   16.5 (-115)
Under   16.5 (-115)

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Total Games O/U
Over – S1   9.5 (-130)
Under – S1   9.5 (EVEN)

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Alternate Game Spread
Tommy Paul   3.5 (+185)
Carlos Alcaraz    -3.5 (-250)
Tommy Paul   4.5 (+125)
Carlos Alcaraz    -4.5 (-165)
Tommy Paul   5.0 (+110)
Carlos Alcaraz    -5.0 (-145)
Tommy Paul   6.0 (-135)
Carlos Alcaraz    -6.0 (+105)
Tommy Paul   6.5 (-165)
Carlos Alcaraz    -6.5 (+125)

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Alternate Game Spread
Tommy Paul – S1   -1.5 (+230)
Carlos Alcaraz  – S1   1.5 (-325)
Tommy Paul – S1   -3.5 (+900)
Carlos Alcaraz  – S1   3.5 (-2000)
Tommy Paul – S1   3.5 (-500)
Carlos Alcaraz  – S1   -3.5 (+325)

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Set Betting
Tommy Paul 3 – 0   +1400
Tommy Paul 3 – 1   +1100
Tommy Paul 3 – 2   +900
Carlos Alcaraz  3 – 0   +116
Carlos Alcaraz  3 – 1   +245
Carlos Alcaraz  3 – 2   +500

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Set Betting – Two Chances
Tommy Paul 3-0 or 3-1   +525
Tommy Paul 3-1 or 3-2   +375
Carlos Alcaraz  3-0 or 3-1   -250
Carlos Alcaraz  3-1 or 3-2   +105

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Set Spread
Tommy Paul   2.5 (-185)
Carlos Alcaraz    -2.5 (+140)

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Alternate Set Spread
Tommy Paul   1.5 (+160)
Carlos Alcaraz    -1.5 (-210)
Tommy Paul   -1.5 (+600)
Carlos Alcaraz    1.5 (-1100)

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Total Sets
Over   3.5 (-155)
Under   3.5 (+120)

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Alternate Total Sets
Over   4.5 (+260)
Under   4.5 (-375)

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Set Correct Score
Tommy Paul – 6 – 0 – S1   +10000
Tommy Paul – 6 – 1 – S1   +4000
Tommy Paul – 6 – 2 – S1   +2500
Tommy Paul – 6 – 3 – S1   +1000
Tommy Paul – 6 – 4 – S1   +1100
Tommy Paul – 7 – 5 – S1   +2500
Tommy Paul – 7 – 6 – S1   +1100
Carlos Alcaraz  – 6 – 0 – S1   +3000
Carlos Alcaraz  – 6 – 1 – S1   +1100
Carlos Alcaraz  – 6 – 2 – S1   +550
Carlos Alcaraz  – 6 – 3 – S1   +445
Carlos Alcaraz  – 6 – 4 – S1   +345
Carlos Alcaraz  – 7 – 5 – S1   +1200
Carlos Alcaraz  – 7 – 6 – S1   +650

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
1st Set Correct Score – Any Player
6-0   +2800
6-1   +1000
6-2   +500
6-3   +275
6-4   +225
7-5   +800
7-6   +350

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
1st Set Correct Score Groups
Tommy Paul 6-0, 6-1 or 6-2   +1400
Tommy Paul 6-3 or 6-4   +450
Tommy Paul 7-5 or 7-6   +650
Carlos Alcaraz  6-0, 6-1 or 6-2   +375
Carlos Alcaraz  6-3 or 6-4   +165
Carlos Alcaraz  7-5 or 7-6   +400

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
2nd Set Correct Score Groups
Tommy Paul 6-0, 6-1 or 6-2   +1400
Tommy Paul 6-3 or 6-4   +450
Tommy Paul 7-5 or 7-6   +650
Carlos Alcaraz  6-0, 6-1 or 6-2   +375
Carlos Alcaraz  6-3 or 6-4   +165
Carlos Alcaraz  7-5 or 7-6   +400

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Set Exacta – Best of 5
Tommy Paul WWW   +1400
Tommy Paul LWWW   +1000
Tommy Paul WLWW   +1000
Tommy Paul WWLW   +1000
Tommy Paul LLWWW   +4500
Tommy Paul LWLWW   +4500
Tommy Paul LWWLW   +4500
Tommy Paul WLLWW   +4500
Tommy Paul WLWLW   +4500
Tommy Paul WWLLW   +4500
Carlos Alcaraz  WWW   +110
Carlos Alcaraz  LWWW   +400
Carlos Alcaraz  WLWW   +400
Carlos Alcaraz  WWLW   +400
Carlos Alcaraz  LLWWW   +2800
Carlos Alcaraz  LWLWW   +2800
Carlos Alcaraz  LWWLW   +2800
Carlos Alcaraz  WLLWW   +2800
Carlos Alcaraz  WLWLW   +2800
Carlos Alcaraz  WWLLW   +2800

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Tiebreak In Set
Yes – S1   +340
No – S1   -525

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
To Lose 1st Set & Win The Match
Tommy Paul   +1000
Carlos Alcaraz    +375

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
To Win 1st Set & Win The Match
Tommy Paul   +500
Carlos Alcaraz    -200

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
To Win & Both Players To Win A Set
Tommy Paul   +400
Carlos Alcaraz    +110

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Will there be a tie-break in the match?
Yes   -105
No   -125

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Total Match Tie Breaks
Over 1.5   +400
Under 1.5   -700
Over 2.5   +1400

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Correct Score After 2 Games
Tommy Paul 2-0   +700
Carlos Alcaraz  2-0   +275
Draw 1-1   -250

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Correct Score After 4 Games
Tommy Paul 4-0   +4000
Tommy Paul 3-1   +500
Carlos Alcaraz  4-0   +1200
Carlos Alcaraz  3-1   +200
Draw 2-2   -110

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Correct Score After 6 Games
Tommy Paul 6-0   +10000
Tommy Paul 5-1   +2000
Tommy Paul 4-2   +450
Carlos Alcaraz  6-0   +3500
Carlos Alcaraz  5-1   +650
Carlos Alcaraz  4-2   +185
Draw 3-3   +135

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Race To 2 Games
Tommy Paul   EVEN
Carlos Alcaraz    -130

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Race To 3 Games
Tommy Paul   +110
Carlos Alcaraz    -145

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Race To 4 Games
Tommy Paul   +135
Carlos Alcaraz    -175

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Race To 5 Games
Tommy Paul   +150
Carlos Alcaraz    -200

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Lead After 4 Games
Tommy Paul   +450
Carlos Alcaraz    +160
Tie   -110

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Lead After 6 Games
Tommy Paul   +375
Carlos Alcaraz    +110
Tie   +135

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Odd/Even Total Games
Even   -115
Odd   -105

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Tommy Paul – 1st Service Game
To Hold Serve   -325
To Be Broken   +230

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Tommy Paul – 1st Service Game Score
Hold to Love   +500
Hold to 15   +300
Hold to 30   +300
Hold to 40   +350
Broken to Love   +2800
Broken to 15   +1200
Broken to 30   +800
Broken to 40   +850

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Tommy Paul – 1st Service Game – Score After 2 Points
Tommy Paul 30-0   +150
15-15   -110
Carlos Alcaraz  0-30   +450

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Tommy Paul – 1st Service Game – To Serve An Ace
Yes   +200
No   -275

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Tommy Paul – 1st Service Game – To Face Break Point
Yes   +135
No   -175

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Tommy Paul – 1st Service Game – To Deuce
Yes   +240
No   -335

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Tommy Paul – 1st Service Game – Total Points
4 Points   +450
5 Points   +225
6 Points   +200
7+ Points   +240

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Carlos Alcaraz  – 1st Service Game
To Hold Serve   -800
To Be Broken   +475

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Carlos Alcaraz  – 1st Service Game Score
Hold to Love   +325
Hold to 15   +225
Hold to 30   +300
Hold to 40   +375
Broken to Love   +4000
Broken to 15   +2000
Broken to 30   +1200
Broken to 40   +1600

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Carlos Alcaraz  – 1st Service Game – Score After 2 Points
Carlos Alcaraz  30-0   EVEN
15-15   +110
Tommy Paul 0-30   +700

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Carlos Alcaraz  – 1st Service Game – To Serve An Ace
Yes   +200
No   -275

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Carlos Alcaraz  – 1st Service Game – To Face Break Point
Yes   +250
No   -350

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Carlos Alcaraz  – 1st Service Game – To Deuce
Yes   +300
No   -450

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Carlos Alcaraz  – 1st Service Game – Total Points
4 Points   +300
5 Points   +200
6 Points   +225
7+ Points   +300

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Most Aces
Tommy Paul   -110
Carlos Alcaraz    +110
Draw   +800

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Most Double Faults
Tommy Paul   +150
Draw   +600
Carlos Alcaraz    -125

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
First Service Break
Tommy Paul   +175
Carlos Alcaraz    -230

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Will Carlos Alcaraz  Win At Least One Set?
Yes   -3300
No   +1200

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Will Tommy Paul Win At Least One Set?
Yes   -185
No   +140

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Tommy Paul To Win Two Sets
Yes   +150
No   -200

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Carlos Alcaraz  To Win Two Sets
Yes   -1100
No   +600

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Tommy Paul To Win From Behind
Yes   +900
No   -2000

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz 
Carlos Alcaraz  To Win From Behind
Yes   +325
No   -500

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US Open ATP Tennis Predictions

Tennis Pick: Alternate Total Games – Under 36.5 (-125)
A $125 Bet on that Props will return $225

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