Cincinnati (5-7) at San Francisco (8-3)
- When: Apr 9 2025, 3:45 PM
- Where: Oracle Park, San Francisco
- Where to watch: FDSOH
MLB Expert Preview & Betting Breakdown: Reds vs. Giants
Moneyline Favorite: San Francisco -147 | Total: 7.5
Cincinnati Reds: Momentum & Matchup Outlook
Cincinnati has leaned heavily on elite pitching to take the first two games of this series, picking up back-to-back shutouts by final scores of 2-0 and 1-0. The trio of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and relievers Tony Santillan, Graham Ashcraft, and Emilio Pagan have been lights out, holding San Francisco to just eight hits across 18 innings.
Despite their offensive struggles (just 13 hits and no home runs through two games), the Reds have managed to string together enough clutch hits to get by. Spencer Steer has been the most consistent at the plate, notching two doubles, while Blake Dunn and Gavin Lux also chipped in with key hits. Lux has shifted to second base to replace the injured Matt McLain (hamstring).
Cincinnati has also promoted top prospect Noelvi Marte and outfielder Will Benson from Triple-A Louisville. Marte, who hit .353 in the minors after a poor spring training, could be an X-factor if inserted into Wednesday’s lineup.
On the mound, right-hander Nick Martinez (0-2, 5.91 ERA) gets the call. He struggled against the Giants earlier this season, giving up four runs over six innings in a 6-3 loss. However, he’s held a solid 3.60 ERA in 14 career appearances vs. San Francisco.
Player Prop Picks (Reds):
Spencer Steer Over 1.5 Total Bases – Swinging a hot bat with multiple doubles already in the series.
Nick Martinez Over 3.5 Strikeouts – He’s pitched deep enough into games to hit this low total.
San Francisco Giants: Seeking a Split
San Francisco has yet to find offensive rhythm in this series. The Giants have just two extra-base hits—doubles from Mike Yastrzemski and Casey Schmitt—and are still looking for their first homer or triple.
Justin Verlander (0-0, 6.14 ERA) will make his third start of the season and try to turn things around for the Giants. He was solid in his season debut against the Reds, giving up one earned run over five innings, but struggled against the Mariners last time out. He’s 1-2 with a 4.25 ERA in five career starts versus Cincinnati.
The Giants have struggled at the plate, with standout offseason addition Jung Hoo Lee just 1-for-8 in the series. While his defense has been impressive, San Francisco needs his bat to come alive to avoid a sweep.
Player Prop Picks (Giants):
Justin Verlander Over 15.5 Outs Recorded – Despite age and recent struggles, he’s still capable of going five-plus innings.
Jung Hoo Lee Over 0.5 Hits – Positive regression candidate in a matchup he should be able to handle.
Betting Prediction:
Cincinnati is on fire from the mound but still lacks punch at the plate. Meanwhile, San Francisco’s offense is due for a breakout, and Verlander is still capable of stabilizing a rotation. The Giants should avoid the sweep here.
Best Bet: Giants ML (-147)
Score Prediction: Giants 4, Reds 2
Lean Under 7.5 (-115)
With elite pitching on both sides and underwhelming offense so far, the Under looks like a strong secondary angle.
- MLB Odds source: MYBookie Sportsbook
