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Houston (60-58) at San Diego (61-57)
- When: Aug 9 2026, 8:20 PM
- Where: Petco Park, San Diego
- TV: NBC/Peacock
Houston vs San Diego MLB Preview & Pick
Moneyline: San Diego -123
Runline: San Diego -1.5 (+160)
Total: 9.0
Jackson Merrill has officially gone from “please stop swinging at that pitch” to “someone check if he’s playing on rookie mode.” The Padres welcome the Astros into Sunday’s rubber match as slight -123 favorites, with the total sitting at 9.0. Thanks to Merrill’s scorching second half, San Diego suddenly looks like a team nobody wants to meet in October.
Jackson Merrill Has Left the Slump Chat
Before the All-Star break, Merrill looked stuck in quicksand, batting just .219 while pitchers kept fooling him with high heaters and breaking balls in the dirt. Since then? Different player, different attitude.
He’s raised his average to .242 in only 22 games while launching seven home runs after the break. Craig Stammen says Merrill is simply playing freer, and the results back it up. When he’s driving balls to the opposite field, Padres fans should probably start planning the victory celebration.
Padres Finding Their Groove
Saturday’s 3-2 win moved San Diego within one game of the National League’s final Wild Card spot. Randy Vasquez (7-6, 4.19 ERA) is expected to handle pitching duties after tossing six scoreless innings against Arizona in his last outing. If he repeats that performance, the Padres will happily sign up again.
Astros Still Searching for Answers
Houston turns to Cristian Javier (1-2, 6.59 ERA), who continues working his way back after injuries limited him over the past few seasons. He allowed three runs in six innings during his latest start and owns a 9.00 ERA against San Diego. Manager Joe Espada has admitted the rotation is basically a daily group project right now.
The Astros still cling to a slim AL West lead, but every game suddenly feels like an emergency meeting.
LVSB Prediction
Merrill is swinging the hottest bat in this series, and San Diego has all the momentum. Unless Houston suddenly remembers it’s 2022 again, expect the Padres to take the series.
Final Score: Padres 6, Astros 4
Lean: San Diego Padres ML (-123)
Total: Over 9.0 (-110)
- MLB Baseball Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
