Houston (1-1) at Golden State (1-1)
- When: Apr 26 2025, 8:30 PM
- Where: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA, USA
- TV: ABC
Warriors vs. Rockets Game 3 Betting Preview, Prediction & Player Prop Picks
Spread: Warriors -3.5 | Total: 205.0
Golden State Warriors Outlook
Golden State heads back to San Francisco with the series tied 1-1, but there’s real concern about Jimmy Butler’s status after he suffered a deep glute contusion in Game 2. Butler, who’s been a game-changer since joining in February, is officially a game-time decision for Saturday night. Stephen Curry, who battled a similar injury earlier this season, hinted it could come down to pain tolerance rather than a long-term absence.
The Warriors desperately need Butler on the floor. Without him, they reverted to bad habits: relying too much on three-point shooting and losing defensive intensity. Golden State jacked up 43 threes in Game 2 (compared to 32 in Game 1), and their shooting percentage dipped significantly. Jonathan Kuminga stepped up with 11 points off the bench in Butler’s absence, but it wasn’t enough to keep pace.
If Butler plays, Golden State’s odds of covering improve significantly. Even if he’s limited, expect the Warriors to play with a renewed sense of urgency at home.
Warriors Prop Picks:
Stephen Curry Over 26.5 Points
Draymond Green Under 6.5 Rebounds
Moses Moody Over 1.5 Threes Made
Houston Rockets Outlook
The Rockets found new life in Game 2, and it wasn’t just because Butler left early. Jalen Green, after a shaky playoff debut, exploded with eight three-pointers on 18 attempts, helping Houston jump from a woeful 20.7% from deep in Game 1 to a respectable 37.5% in the win.
Green admitted nerves got to him in Game 1, but he adjusted quickly, giving Houston the scoring punch they needed. The Rockets also turned up their defensive pressure, disrupting Golden State’s rhythm and forcing them into tough shots. If they keep up that intensity, they could make Game 3 a lot closer than the oddsmakers expect.
However, Houston’s challenge is maintaining that level of play on the road, especially against a Warriors team that thrives at home in playoff environments.
Rockets Prop Picks:
Jalen Green Over 20.5 Points
Alperen Sengun Over 10.5 Rebounds
Fred VanVleet Over 4.5 Assists
Game 3 Expert Prediction
The Warriors rarely lose back-to-back home playoff games. Even with Butler’s status uncertain, Golden State should regroup and refocus. Expect Curry to lead the charge and help the Warriors regain control of the series.
Pick: Warriors -3.5
Prediction: Golden State 104, Houston 98
Lean: Under 205.0 – Both defenses should tighten up, keeping the score lower in this pivotal matchup.
- NBA Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
