Minnesota (12-16) at Cleveland (15-12)
- When: Apr 28 2025, 6:10 PM
- Where: Progressive Field, Cleveland
- Where to watch: MNNT
Twins vs. Guardians Game 1 Betting Preview, Prediction & Breakdown
Moneyline: Cleveland -128 | Total: 8.0
Minnesota Twins Outlook
The Twins are rolling into Cleveland with some much-needed momentum after an impressive 5-1 homestand against the lowly White Sox and Angels. Minnesota dominated those series, outscoring opponents 31-13, and now rides a three-game winning streak. Joe Ryan dazzled with 11 strikeouts in Sunday’s 5-0 shutout, and the offense, led by Carlos Correa and Ty France, looked alive.
Still, Minnesota has serious road woes to fix. The Twins are a brutal 3-10 away from home this season and have dropped seven of their last eight games in Cleveland dating back to last September. Scoring just 22 runs over that eight-game stretch highlights their struggles to break through at Progressive Field.
Bailey Ober gets the ball Monday. After a disastrous season debut, Ober has settled down, posting a 2.42 ERA over his last four outings. He’s owned Cleveland historically, carrying a strong 2.20 ERA against them, but faces a dangerous Guardians lineup hungry to bounce back.
Cleveland Guardians Outlook
Cleveland returns to action after a rough weekend, dropping two straight to Boston by a combined 20-6 margin. Defensive miscues and poor baserunning hurt them badly on Sunday, but outfielder Nolan Jones insists the Guardians are ready to reset and refocus.
Gavin Williams will toe the rubber for Cleveland. The right-hander has been solid at home this season (2-1, 4.15 ERA) and owns a sharp 2.12 ERA in his career against the Twins. However, he has rarely worked deep into games, a concern if Cleveland’s bullpen is asked to do too much heavy lifting again.
The Guardians will need better at-bats and sharper fielding to rebound. Jose Ramirez remains a threat against Ober (6-for-19 lifetime), but Steven Kwan’s 0-for-12 record vs. Ober is a glaring red flag.
Prediction
Minnesota is hot but historically awful in Cleveland. Ober’s success against the Guardians gives them a shot, but the safer bet lies with Cleveland, who are poised to bounce back strong at home.
Pick: Guardians ML (-128)
Prediction: Cleveland 4, Minnesota 3
Lean: Under 8.0 (-105) – Given both pitchers’ familiarity with the opposing lineups, expect a lower-scoring grind to open this four-game set.
- MLB Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
