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Last year witnessed a tight competition for the Offensive Rookie of the Year title, with Garrett Wilson of the Jets emerging as the winner despite receiving fewer first-place votes than Kenneth Walker of the Seahawks. In 2021, Ja’Marr Chase of the Bengals dominated the award, while Justin Herbert of the Chargers secured the victory by setting a rookie record for touchdown passes in a single season.
Day 1 picks in the NFL Draft have historically been favored for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award, with only five of the past 21 winners chosen outside of the first round. In fact, the award has been won by a first-round pick for the last six consecutive years. Wide receivers and running backs have been the most successful, with seven of the last ten winners coming from these positions. No surprise, the current favorite for the upcoming season is Bijan Robinson. However, could quarterbacks or speedy wide receivers surprise us? Read on to discover some of the best bets for the award.
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Bijan Robinson (+275)
Robinson, the favorite, has a strong chance of winning the award. As a former Texas running back, he is expected to take on a prominent role in the offense. Since the award tends to favor skill players over quarterbacks, Robinson is in a good position. The Falcons led the NFL in rushing attempts last season, and with their No. 8 pick used on a running back, it is unlikely that their offensive game plan will change. While Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson will compete for carries, Robinson will benefit from being utilized early and frequently. Expect him to have an impressive rookie season.
Jahmyr Gibbs (+1000)
Gibbs brings electrifying speed and agility to the football field. With an average of 5.6 yards per carry in the SEC, he has proven his ability to excel as a running back. Additionally, his impressive 40-yard dash time of 4.36 seconds at the combine outpaces many wide receivers. He joins the Lions, where he complements David Montgomery’s style of play. The Lions also boast a formidable offensive line featuring three Pro Bowlers. I predict that Gibbs will initially serve as Montgomery’s backup but will take over as the featured back by mid-October. His performance will make a strong case for the Offensive Rookie of the Year title.
Jordan Addison (+1700)
Addison finds himself in a favorable situation compared to other wide receivers chosen in the first round. He is expected to see plenty of targets early on, as the Vikings had the third-most passing attempts in the NFL last season. With Dalvin Cook’s departure, the team will remain heavily reliant on the passing game. Defenses will primarily focus on Justin Jefferson, creating opportunities for other Viking receivers like Addison. With Adam Thielen’s 107 targets now available, Addison has a clear path to receive a significant number of passes in a solid passing offense.
Zay Flowers (+3000)
Flowers offers great value at odds of 30-1 and enters a situation that could work in his favor as a rookie wide receiver. The Ravens’ new offensive coordinator, Todd Monken, is expected to emphasize the passing game after securing Lamar Jackson’s long-term deal. Defenses will focus on star tight end Mark Andrews and new addition Odell Beckham Jr. Additionally, they must account for Jackson’s running ability. Flowers will benefit from consistently facing one-on-one coverage and exploiting gaps in zone coverage. His excellent footwork, physicality, route running, and strong hands enable him to excel despite his small frame. If the Ravens succeed in revitalizing their air attack, Flowers will play a significant role and draw attention for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.
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