Philadelphia (23-16) at Cleveland (23-16)
- When: May 11 2025, 7:10 PM
- Where: Progressive Field, Cleveland
- Where to watch: ESPN
Phillies vs. Guardians – Game Preview, Prediction, and Player Props
Moneyline: Phillies (-174)
Total: 7.5
Philadelphia Phillies Overview
The Phillies are riding high into Sunday night’s series finale against the Cleveland Guardians after a dominant 7-1 victory on Saturday. Bryce Harper was the story of the game, snapping out of his slump with authority. Harper launched a 421-foot two-run blast, doubled, and had a season-high three hits, marking his first multi-extra-base-hit game of the year. It was just his second home run in 19 games, but it came at a crucial moment for a Phillies team trying to build momentum.
Harper’s performance was a breath of fresh air for Philadelphia, as he had been batting just .175 since April 21, with only four extra-base hits over that stretch. “I hit a couple of balls hard, and it felt good. It’s a good stepping stone,” Harper said. Phillies manager Rob Thomson echoed that sentiment, noting that the entire team seemed to exhale after Harper’s homer. Harper is currently hitting .242 with seven homers and 22 RBIs on the season.
Equally impressive was Ranger Suarez, who threw seven shutout innings, scattering just three singles against a Cleveland squad that has been dominant at home, winning 12 of their last 18 in Ohio. Suarez, who had struggled in his first start back from injury, looked every bit like the All-Star he was last season, tossing just 82 pitches. “Ranger threw a great game and kept them off-balance,” Harper noted. Suarez himself credited his change of approach, focusing less on overpowering hitters and more on pitch control.
The Phillies will send Zack Wheeler (3-1, 3.35 ERA) to the mound in the rubber match. Wheeler has a 2.25 ERA over 12 innings in his career against Cleveland but holds a winless record in those starts. The Phillies are banking on Wheeler’s consistency to clinch the series.
Cleveland Guardians Overview
The Guardians couldn’t get anything going offensively on Saturday, managing just four hits in the 7-1 loss. After averaging over seven runs per game in their previous six contests, Cleveland’s bats were silenced by Suarez’s masterful outing. Manager Stephen Vogt acknowledged the lackluster performance: “We just weren’t able to string quality at-bats together. We needed to be better offensively to win that game.”
Third baseman Jose Ramirez provided a spark with two hits and a stolen base, while Carlos Santana extended his on-base streak to 13 games. Cleveland remains in the thick of things in the AL Central, with manager Vogt keeping a close eye on the standings. With Detroit, Kansas City, and defending champion Cleveland all vying for top spots, every game matters in the race.
The Guardians will counter with right-hander Luis L. Ortiz (2-3, 5.30 ERA), who has been a bit of a mystery for the Phillies. In his career against Philadelphia, Ortiz boasts a sparkling 2-0 record with a microscopic 0.69 ERA. The Guardians hope he can extend that dominance and salvage the series split.
Player Prop Picks:
Bryce Harper – Over 1.5 Total Bases – Harper’s bat woke up in a big way on Saturday, and he’s primed to keep it rolling against Ortiz.
Zack Wheeler – Over 6.5 Strikeouts – Wheeler has been dealing lately, and the Guardians’ inconsistency at the plate sets him up for a big night.
Expert Prediction and Final Score:
Philadelphia’s lineup is heating up, and Harper’s resurgence is a massive boost heading into Sunday. Wheeler has been sharp, and with the Guardians’ offense struggling to string hits together, the edge goes to the Phillies.
Score Prediction: Phillies 5, Guardians 2
Lean: Phillies -1.5 (+100)
Total: Under 7.5 (-115)
- MLB Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
