Seattle (23-19) at San Diego (27-15)
- When: May 16 2025, 9:40 PM
- Where: PETCO Park, San Diego
- Where to watch: Apple TV+
Mariners vs. Padres – Game Preview, Prediction and Player Props
Moneyline: San Diego -150
Total: 8.5
The San Diego Padres are back in action on Friday night as they host the Seattle Mariners in the first of a three-game weekend series. San Diego enters this matchup as the -150 moneyline favorite, with the total set at 8.5, looking to build on a strong performance from their newest rotation gem, Stephen Kolek.
San Diego Padres: Kolek’s Rising Star
The Padres are riding high on the stellar pitching of right-hander Stephen Kolek (2-0, 0.00 ERA), who has thrown 14 1/3 scoreless innings over his first two MLB starts. Kolek’s impressive outings include a 5 1/3 inning shutout against Pittsburgh followed by a complete-game five-hit masterpiece against the Rockies a feat that marked the first shutout by a visiting pitcher at Coors Field since 2013.
Kolek was originally a Rule 5 draft pick from the Mariners, adding a bit of intrigue to this matchup. Padres’ pitching coach Ruben Niebla has praised Kolek’s stuff, indicating that the long-term plan was always for him to become a starter, and he’s certainly proving his worth. His arsenal includes a deadly sinker, a cutter, a sweeper, and a straight changeup, which he used to dominate Colorado in just 104 pitches.
Expect Kolek to capitalize on his momentum and put the Mariners’ bats to the test on Friday night.
Seattle Mariners: Searching for Consistency
The Mariners counter with rookie Logan Evans (1-1, 3.60 ERA), who has shown flashes of promise but struggled with consistency. Evans heads into Friday’s game off a no-decision against the Blue Jays, where he pitched five innings, allowing five hits and three runs. While he left with a lead, the Mariners’ bullpen couldn’t hold it, ultimately losing 6-3.
Seattle comes into this game after a brutal homestand where they went just 1-5, including a series loss to the Yankees capped off by an Aaron Judge go-ahead homer in the eighth inning of the finale. Despite the slump, the Mariners remain atop the AL West by a slim margin, but they’ll need much more production to handle the Padres in this one.
Manager Dan Wilson has expressed frustration over missed opportunities, especially with hard-hit balls that failed to convert into runs. Heading into San Diego, they’ll need to break out of that funk quickly if they want to keep pace in the division.
Player Prop Picks:
Stephen Kolek Over 5.5 Strikeouts – Given his dominance in the last two starts, Kolek should have no trouble surpassing this mark against a Mariners lineup that’s been shaky.
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases – Tatis has been a spark plug for the Padres, and with Evans struggling to find his groove, expect him to take advantage.
Expert Prediction and Final Score:
With Kolek on the mound and riding a wave of momentum, the Padres are in prime position to take the series opener. San Diego’s bats have been efficient, and Kolek’s control should stifle Seattle’s struggling offense. Take the Padres to win 5-2, with Kolek locking down his third straight quality start.
Score Prediction: Padres 5, Mariners 2
Lean: San Diego -1.5 (+140)
Total: Under 8.5 (+100)
- MLB Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
