Toronto (2-1) at Florida (1-2)
- When: May 11 2025, 7:30 PM
- Where: Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise, FL, USA
- TV: TBS
Maple Leafs vs. Panthers – Game 4 Preview and Prediction
Moneyline: Florida (-147) | Total: 5.5
Florida Panthers Analysis
The Florida Panthers are coming into Game 4 riding high after a dramatic 5-4 overtime win against the Toronto Maple Leafs. Since acquiring Brad Marchand from the Boston Bruins two months ago, the Panthers have injected some serious playoff experience into their lineup. Marchand, who is no stranger to big moments, delivered a clutch overtime goal to cut the series deficit to 2-1. When asked about his game-winner, Marchand downplayed it, saying, “It’s a blur… It could’ve been anybody.” His modesty aside, he’s proven to be a game-changer with 14 game-winning playoff goals—the most of any active NHL player.
Florida’s physicality was on full display in Game 3, out-hitting the Maple Leafs 62-43. That aggressive style has become their trademark, especially with Sergei Bobrovsky between the pipes. Bobrovsky made two huge saves in overtime to set up Marchand’s heroics, adding to his career tally of 51 playoff wins. The Panthers are now 13-2 in overtime playoff games since 2021, a testament to their grit in high-pressure moments.
Florida’s dominance over Toronto isn’t new; they eliminated the Maple Leafs back in the 2023 playoffs and won the 2024-25 season series 3-1. With Game 4 back at Sunrise, the Panthers have a golden opportunity to tie the series and regain momentum. Look for Florida to apply relentless pressure and capitalize on their physical play to edge out another victory.
Toronto Maple Leafs Analysis
The Toronto Maple Leafs enter Game 4 knowing that missed chances and odd bounces cost them dearly in Game 3. Despite netting four goals, two of them came off Florida deflections, and another hit the crossbar before landing perfectly for a rebound. The Leafs have been competitive in each contest, but they’ve struggled to execute under Florida’s heavy physical play. Coach Craig Berube emphasized the need to sustain offensive pressure, saying, “We got back to playing our game… We need to keep doing that.”
John Tavares stepped up with two goals in Game 3, but it wasn’t enough. Toronto also made some lineup adjustments, benching Mackie Samoskevich, Nico Sturm, and Jesper Boqvist in favor of Tomas Nosek, Jonah Gadjovich, and AJ Greer. The switch paid off as Nosek scored Florida’s fourth goal, a move that Panthers coach Paul Maurice called a necessary “style change.”
For the Maple Leafs to bounce back in Game 4, they need to ramp up the pressure and get cleaner shots on Bobrovsky. Tavares mentioned, “We need to execute like we have in the past,” but doing so against Florida’s physicality and clutch goaltending will be a tall order.
Betting Odds and Prediction
Final Score Prediction: Panthers 5, Maple Leafs 3
Best Bet: Florida Puckline -1.5 (+137)
Total: Over 6.0 (-120)
Prediction: Florida Panthers take Game 4 at home, maintaining their physical edge and clutch playoff experience. Expect Florida to control the tempo and capitalize on Toronto’s defensive lapses. Take the Panthers on the puckline (+137) and consider the Over 6.0 as both teams have been finding the net consistently.
- NHL Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
