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UFC 295 Picks & Predictions: Prochazka vs Pereira (November 11th, 2023)

Looking for UFC 295 picks and predictions for the highly anticipated matchup between Jiri Prochazka and Alex Pereira on November 11th, 2023? Look no further, check out our expert analysis to inform your betting decisions for this exciting event.

UFC 295 Picks & Predictions: Prochazka vs Pereira (November 11th, 2023)

  • Event: UFC 295
  • Venue: Madison Square Garden in New York City
  • Date: Saturday, November 11, 2023

In unfortunate news for MMA fans, the highly anticipated fight between Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic at UFC 295 has been cancelled. Jon Jones, who was set to defend his heavyweight title against Miocic, suffered a torn pectoral tendon during training, forcing him to withdraw from the bout. This cancellation has left both fighters and fans disappointed, as it was expected to be a thrilling matchup.

Though, UFC 295 is set to bring an exciting lineup of fights and thrilling matchups. Headlining the event, Jiri Prochazka and Alex Pereira will face off in a battle for dominance in the light heavyweight division. This also includes the Main Card:

Diego Lopes vs Pat Sabatini

Pat-Sabatini

Place your bets on the upcoming UFC 295 match between Diego Lopes and Pat Sabatini at the Madison Square Garden in New York City on Saturday, November 11, 2023. Lopes, standing at 5’11” and weighing 145 lbs, has odds of +102, while Sabatini, at 5’8″ and 145 lbs, is at -120. Get the latest UFC betting picks to help you make an informed decision. In their previous fights, Lopes emerged victorious by a triangle armbar, while Sabatini secured a win with an arm triangle. The event also features exciting matchups between Steve Erceg and Alessandro Costa, as well as Nurullo Aliev and Mateusz Rebecki. Make sure to catch all the UFC action and place your bets on Pat Sabatini to win tonight’s match with odds of -120. 

The Pick: Pat Sabatini -120

Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook (USA), Bodog Sportsbook (Canada, LATAM)

Matt Frevola vs Benoit Saint Denis

Matt Frevola will face off against Benoit Saint Denis at UFC 295 on Saturday, November 11, 2023. The line has Frevola priced at +185 while Denis is at -225.

Matt “The SteamRolla” Frevola comes into this fight holding a mark of 11-3-1. The 33-year-old weighs in at 155 lbs and stands 5’9″. The orthodox fighter stretches 71″. Benoit “God of War” Saint Denis measures in at 5’11” and tips the scales at 155 lbs. The southpaw fighter will be looking to add a victory to his career record of 12-1-0 (1 NC). The 27-year-old reaches 73″. In terms of significant strikes, Matt Frevola connects on 3.72 per minute and Benoit Saint Denis is connecting on 5.59 significant strikes per min. Frevola connects on 41% of the significant strikes he attempts and Saint Denis lands 52%. When it comes to the fighter’s defense, “The SteamRolla” absorbs 3.56 significant strikes per minute while “God of War” allows 5.27. Frevola also deflects 59% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him and Saint Denis prevents 44% of the shots thrown in his direction.

UFC 295Matt FrevolaBenoit Saint Denis
Opening Odds+185-225
Record11-3-112-1-0 (1 NC)
Average Fight Time7:578:16
Height5’9″5’11”
Weight155 lbs155 lbs
Reach71″73″
Strikes Landed Per Minute3.725.59
Striking Accuracy41%52%

In terms of grappling, Matt Frevola is the lesser skilled grappler as he gets a takedown 2.26 times per 15 minutes. Frevola is taking his opponents to the canvas on 36% of his tries and thwarting 42% of all takedown tries against him. Saint Denis is getting his opponent to the mat on 36% of the takedowns he attempts and is stuffing 80% of the tries against him. Regarding going for the sub, Frevola is less apt at going for the finish by going for 0.9 submissions per 3 rds while Saint Denis looks to get 1.4 submissions per 3 rounds.

In his last fight, Matt Frevola squared up with Drew Dober and got a win for the night by way of a punch to the head in round 1. Dober ended up landing 20 of 59 total strikes attempted in that contest. Frevola finished this fight landing 39 of 79 total strikes. In regard to significant strikes, Dober ended up landing 20 of 59, which gave him a percentage of 33%. He landed 12 of 50 significant strikes directed at the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Frevola landed 46% of his significant strikes by landing 35 of 75. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he connected on 26 of 61 pointed at the head. 95% of the significant strikes landed by Dober and 62% of them landed by Frevola were tallied at a distance.

In the last Octagon appearance for Benoit Saint Denis, he went up against Thiago Moises and took home the win by way of a punch to the head while on the ground in round 2. Moises ended up connecting on 95% of his significant strikes at distance while Denis landed 41% of his significant strikes at distance. Denis connected on 55% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 101 of 182. He connected on 49 of 123 significant strikes to the head. Moises ended up landing 24 of 62 significant strikes in that fight. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he connected on 12 of 46 to the head. Regarding total strikes thrown, Moises connected on 27 of 67 while Denis ended up landing 123 of 210 of the strikes he threw in total.

The Pick: Matt Frevola (+185)

Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook (USA), Bodog Sportsbook (Canada, LATAM)

Check out Daily Picks at Handicappers Edge

Jessica Andrade vs Mackenzie Dern

Jessica Andrade will face off against Mackenzie Dern at UFC 295 on Saturday, November 11, 2023. The opening moneyline has Andrade at +164 while Dern is priced at -198.

Jessica “Bate Estaca” Andrade comes into this bout with a mark of 24-12-0. The 32-year-old tips the scales at 115 lbs and measures 5’1″. The orthodox fighter stretches 62″. Mackenzie Dern stands in at 5’4″ and tips the scales at 115 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this fight with a mark of 13-3-0. The 30-year-old extends her reach 63″. In terms of significant strikes, Jessica Andrade connects on 6.68 per minute and Mackenzie Dern connects on 3.36 significant strikes per min. Andrade is landing 50% of the significant strikes she attempts and Dern is landing 40%. In terms of defending themselves, “Bate Estaca” takes 5.34 significant strikes per minute while Dern allows 4.09. Andrade also defends 54% of the significant strikes her opponents throw at her while Dern is able to thwart 51% of the shots thrown in her direction.

UFC 295Jessica AndradeMackenzie Dern
Opening Odds+164-198
Record24-12-013-3-0
Average Fight Time9:1313:30
Height5’1″5’4″
Weight115 lbs115 lbs
Reach62″63″
Strikes Landed Per Minute6.683.36
Striking Accuracy50%40%

In terms of takedowns, Jessica Andrade has a higher success rate, averaging 2.54 takedowns per 3 rounds, with a 54% success rate. She also defends against takedowns well, stopping 70% of her opponents’ attempts. On the other hand, Mackenzie Dern has a lower takedown success rate, scoring a takedown on 15% of her attempts and defending against takedowns 40% of the time. Andrade attempts fewer submissions (0.4 per 15 minutes) compared to Dern (1.5 per 15 minutes) but is still proficient in grappling.

In her previous fight against Tatiana Suarez, Andrade lost via a guillotine choke in round 2. Andrade landed 13 of 31 total strikes and 11 of 29 significant strikes, with 37% accuracy. Suarez connected on 25 of 51 total strikes and 23 of 49 significant strikes, with 46% accuracy. Both fighters had a high percentage of significant strikes at distance.

Dern’s last fight was against Angela Hill, which she won by unanimous decision in round 5. Dern landed 126 of 210 significant strikes with 60% accuracy, including 104 of 186 aimed at the head. Hill connected on 66 of 108 significant strikes, with 27 of 65 aimed at the head. Dern had a higher accuracy rate in both total strikes and significant strikes.

The Pick: Jessica Andrade (+164)

Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook (USA), Bodog Sportsbook (Canada, LATAM)

Sergei Pavlovich vs Tom Aspinall

Sergei Pavlovich will face off against Tom Aspinall at UFC 295 on Saturday, November 11, 2023. Initial odds have Pavlovich at -102 and Aspinall at -118.

Sergei Pavlovich seeks to add another win to his overall record of 18-1-0. He stands at 6’3″ and weighs 257 lbs. Tom Aspinall comes in at 6’5″ and 256 lbs with a record of 13-3-0. In the significant strikes category, Pavlovich lands 8.72 per min compared to Aspinall’s 7.65. Pavlovich lands 49% of his significant strikes, while Aspinall lands 66%. Defensively, Pavlovich absorbs 4.33 significant strikes per minute, while Aspinall absorbs 2.90. In terms of takedowns, Pavlovich takes his opponents down 0.40 times per 15 minutes, while Aspinall takes his opponent down 85% of the time.

UFC 295Sergei PavlovichTom Aspinall
Opening Odds-102-118
Record18-1-013-3-0
Average Fight Time2:232:19
Height6’3″6’5″
Weight257 lbs256 lbs
Reach84″78″
Strikes Landed Per Minute8.727.65
Striking Accuracy49%66%

Sergei Pavlovich’s takedown efficiency is not as high as his opponents, with a success rate of 15% and stopping 75% of takedowns. In contrast, Tom Aspinall has a higher success rate of 85% in both takedowns and defense against takedowns. Pavlovich attempts fewer submissions (0.5 per 3 rounds) compared to Aspinall (1.9 per 15 minutes).

In Pavlovich’s recent fight against Curtis Blaydes, he won by landing 36 out of 85 total strikes, while Blaydes landed 14 out of 56. Pavlovich had a significant strike accuracy of 42%, with 30 out of 78 strikes aimed at the head connecting. Both fighters had a high percentage of significant strikes at a distance.

Aspinall faced Marcin Tybura in his last fight and secured a victory with a punch to the head in round 1. Aspinall had a significant strike accuracy of 72%, connecting on 13 out of 18 strikes, including 12 out of 17 to the head. Tybura, on the other hand, landed 4 out of 15 significant strikes, with a lower accuracy of 2 out of 13 to the head. Aspinall had a higher success rate in both total strikes and significant strikes.

The Pick: Tom Aspinall (-118)

Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook (USA), Bodog Sportsbook (Canada, LATAM)

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Jiri Prochazka vs Alex Pereira

Jiri Prochazka will face off with Alex Pereira at UFC 295 on Saturday, November 11, 2023. The opening odds have Prochazka at +105 while Pereira is priced at -125.

Jiri-Prochazka

Jiri Prochazka looks to add a victory to his career total of 29-3-1. The 31-year-old is fighting at 205 lbs and stands in at 6’3″. The orthodox fighter stretches 80″. Alex “Poatan” Pereira stands in at 6’4″ and will fight at 205 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his career record of 8-2-0. The 36-year-old has a wingspan of 79″. In the category of significant strikes, Jiri Prochazka is landing 5.77 per min and Alex Pereira is connecting on 5.11 significant strikes per minute. Prochazka connects on 55% of the significant strikes he attempts and Pereira connects on 62%. When it comes to defending in the Octagon, Prochazka absorbs 5.40 significant strikes per min and “Poatan” absorbs 3.70. Prochazka also prevents 40% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him while Pereira is able to stop 51% of them.

UFC 295Jiri ProchazkaAlex Pereira
Opening Odds+105-125
Record29-3-18-2-0
Average Fight Time13:1711:33
Height6’3″6’4″
Weight205 lbs205 lbs
Reach80″79″
Strikes Landed Per Minute5.775.11
Striking Accuracy55%62%

In terms of wrestling, Jiri Prochazka is the better grappler as he scores a takedown 0.38 times per 3 rds. Prochazka is getting his opponent to the mat on 85% of the times he tries and defending 68% of all takedown tries against him. Pereira is taking his opponents to the canvas on 85% of the takedowns he attempts and stuffing 70% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. When it comes to submission attempts, Prochazka is the more experienced of the two fighters by attempting 0.4 subs per 3 rounds while Pereira goes for 0.2 subs per 3 rounds.

The last time he fought, Jiri Prochazka fought Glover Teixeira and wound up taking home the victory by way of rear naked choke in round 5. Teixeira landed 159 of 212 total strikes that he threw in that contest. Prochazka finished this fight landing 157 of 245 total strikes. In the category of significant strikes, Teixeira landed 111 of 161, which gave him a rate of 68%. He landed 98 of 145 significant strikes to the head. On the other side, Prochazka ended up landing 58% of his significant strikes by connecting on 120 of 205. Out of those significant strikes, he connected on 106 of 190 pointed at the head. 40% of the significant strikes landed by Teixeira and 63% of them landed by Prochazka were done at distance.

In the last fight for Alex Pereira, he fought Jan Blachowicz and took home the win by split decision in round 3. Blachowicz ended up connecting on 78% of the significant strikes he took from distance and Pereira ended up connecting on 88% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Pereira connected on 76% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 70 of 92. He ended up landing 26 of 46 significant strikes to the head. Blachowicz connected on 52 of 81 significant strikes in that fight. Of those significant strikes, he landed 41 of 66 to the head. Regarding total strikes thrown, Blachowicz ended up connecting on 82 of 117 while Pereira ended up connecting on 112 of 138 of all the strikes he attempted

The Pick: Jiri Prochazka (+105)

Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook (USA), Bodog Sportsbook (Canada, LATAM)

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