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Home Run Derby 2026 odds, picks, predictions
- When: Jul 13 2026, 8:00 PM
- Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
- TV: Netflix
Derby Favorites Ready to Launch Bombs
The MLB Home Run Derby takes center stage tonight at 8:00 p.m. ET from Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park, debuting an exciting clock-free format while streaming exclusively on Netflix. With elite sluggers competing for the crown, betting markets are loaded with value on outright winners, head-to-head matchups and longest home run props.
Philadelphia stars Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper headline the field in front of the hometown crowd, making them popular favorites, while several power hitters enter with the ability to steal the spotlight and cash as long-shot wagers.
How Home Run Derby works
The 2026 Home Run Derby introduces a major betting twist with MLB replacing the long-running timed format with a swing-limit competition. Every swing now carries greater importance, forcing hitters to balance patience with power.
Contestants receive 20 swings in the opening round and 15 swings in both the semifinals and finals. A home run on the final swing extends the round until a non-home run is hit, creating extra value for late-round drama.
From a wagering perspective, the new format could favor efficient sluggers over high-volume hitters, while only the top four home run totals from the opening round advance to the semifinals, making every swing count.
Home Run Derby Odds
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) +360
Junior Caminero (TB) +375
Munetaka Murakami (CWS) +525
Jordan Walker (STL) +600
Bryce Harper (PHI) +700
Jac Caglianone (KC) +750
Ben Rice (NYY) +900
Willson Contreras (BOS) +1800
Head-to-Head Matchups
After the opening round, the four remaining sluggers will be seeded by their home run totals, creating semifinal head-to-head matchups with the No. 1 seed facing No. 4 and No. 2 meeting No. 3.
Bettors should expect added drama, as every home run can impact seeding and the road to the championship. If players finish tied, the longest home run from Round 1 serves as the first tiebreaker, while the semifinals and final are decided by an exciting swing-off if needed, adding another layer of value to live betting markets.
Round 1 H2H Longest Home Run
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) -125
Junior Caminero (TB) -105
Round 1 H2H Longest Home Run
Junior Caminero (TB) -190
Bryce Harper (PHI) +145
Round 1 H2H Longest Home Run
Munetaka Murakami (CWS) +105
Jordan Walker (STL) -135
Round 1 H2H Most Home Runs
Ben Rice (NYY) -120
Willson Contreras (BOS) -110
Our pick is: Ben Rice at (-120) vs Willson Contreras
More matchup odds here!
Distance of Longest Home Run
The longest home run market always draws plenty of betting interest, and the benchmark remains impressive. In the Statcast era, Juan Soto owns the official Home Run Derby record with a towering 520-foot blast at the 2021 event.
Before Statcast tracking, Sammy Sosa was credited with an estimated 524-foot moonshot during the 2002 Derby. With today’s elite power hitters in the field, bettors will be watching closely to see if either distance record is seriously challenged.
Longest Home Run
Over 485.5 ft -115
Under 485.5 ft -115
Home Run Derby Final Predictions
Junior Caminero enters the Home Run Derby as one of the top betting values at +375. After finishing runner-up last year, the Rays slugger returns with an even stronger profile under the new swing-based format. Caminero leads MLB with nine home runs of at least 430 feet and owns the longest blast among this year’s participants at 463 feet.
Combined with the fastest average bat speed in baseball, he has the power and efficiency to thrive without a timer. At +375, Caminero is my pick to win the 2026 Home Run Derby.
Final pick: Junior Caminero (+375)
- MLB Baseball Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
