Arizona (17-15) at Philadelphia (18-14)
- When: May 3 2025, 6:05 PM
- Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
- Where to watch: ARID
MLB Betting Preview: Diamondbacks vs. Phillies
Moneyline: Phillies -119 | Total: 9.5
Philadelphia Phillies – Short Favorite with Something to Prove
The Phillies enter Saturday night as slight -119 favorites in what’s shaping up to be a tight pitching matchup. Veteran right-hander Aaron Nola is still searching for his first win of 2025, despite flashing his best form last time out. He tossed seven strong innings against the Cubs, allowing just one run and three hits, a much-needed rebound after a shaky start to the year.
Nola’s 0-5 record and 5.40 ERA are far from ace-level, and his tendency to give up the long ball and issue walks early in the season is worth noting. Still, manager Rob Thomson remains confident in his consistency and work ethic two traits bettors will hope show up against a tough Arizona lineup. The Phillies have been hot overall, winning five of their last six, with Kyle Schwarber leading the charge offensively. He enters tied for the NL lead in home runs and continues to be a game-changer in the clutch.
Prediction Angle: Philadelphia has momentum, but this game hinges on which version of Nola shows up. With his past struggles against Arizona (7.31 ERA), backers should tread cautiously.
Arizona Diamondbacks – Value with a Hot Arm on the Mound
Arizona sends red-hot Brandon Pfaadt (5-1, 2.78 ERA) to the mound, and he’s quietly becoming one of the more consistent arms in the National League. He’s gone at least six innings in five of his last six starts, including a quality outing against the Braves last time out. Pfaadt allowed just two earned runs across nine hits and struck out six another win for his streak, now up to five straight.
While this will be his first regular-season start against the Phillies, Pfaadt faced them twice in the NLCS last October and was excellent, allowing only two earned runs over 9.2 innings while striking out 16. That history may give him a psychological edge on the mound Saturday.
Arizona’s offense is getting healthier too, with Ketel Marte back in the lineup and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. swinging a hot bat. Though Eugenio Suarez has cooled off after tying a home run record last week, the D-backs still have the depth to challenge Nola, especially if he regresses.
Prediction Angle: With Pfaadt in top form and Nola shaky to start 2025, Arizona offers live dog value here especially given Nola’s career struggles against this lineup.
Final Betting Prediction
This is a near pick’em game, but the pitching matchup favors Arizona if recent form holds. Nola is coming off a strong start, but his inconsistent early-season numbers and poor history vs. Arizona can’t be ignored.
Pick: Lean Diamondbacks ML for value (+100 to +110 range)
Total: Slight lean Under 9.5, assuming both starters are sharp early and bullpens hold late.
Score Prediction: Dbacks 5, Phillies 4
- MLB Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
