Golden State (3-3) at Houston (3-3)
- When: May 4 2025, 8:30 PM
- Where: Toyota Center, Houston, TX, USA
- TV: TNT
NBA Playoffs Game 7 Betting Breakdown: Warriors vs. Rockets
Spread: Houston -2.5 | Total: 205.5
Houston Rockets – Youth No Longer a Liability
The Rockets have turned the narrative upside down. Once pegged as too young and too inexperienced to handle playoff pressure, Houston now finds itself favored in a Game 7 on its home floor with momentum and composure on its side.
After a 115-107 Game 6 victory in Golden State, the Rockets have shown they can close out games and play with poise under pressure. Fred VanVleet continues to lead with authority, dropping 29 points, 8 boards, and 8 dimes in the clutch performance. His veteran leadership, combined with the maturity of Houston’s young core, has been the difference-maker.
Defensively, Ime Udoka’s squad has tightened up significantly, making life difficult for the Warriors down the stretch. Their ability to contain Stephen Curry and clog up Golden State’s offensive rhythm has been a critical development as the series progressed.
Prediction: Rockets 103, Warriors 98
Spread Pick: Houston -2.5 – They’ve adjusted, they’re confident, and home court will be the edge.
Player Prop Pick: Fred VanVleet Over Assists – He’s dictating the tempo and creating shots consistently.
Golden State Warriors – Running on History and Grit
Golden State’s championship pedigree is undeniable, but it hasn’t translated into consistent results in this series. The Warriors unraveled late in Game 6, missing 13 straight shots in the fourth quarter and showing rare frustration under pressure.
Now they’re facing elimination on the road in a hostile environment against a team that’s learned how to punch back. Curry, Green, and company have been here before they’ve won their fair share of Game 7s but this version of the Warriors is older, less explosive, and prone to lulls that Houston has capitalized on.
Steve Kerr’s crew will need to rally together, lean on past experience, and find a way to get production beyond Curry and Green. Jimmy Butler and the bench have been too inconsistent to trust.
Player Prop Pick: Stephen Curry Over Points – This is the kind of moment he’s built for, and he’ll need a monster game to keep them alive.
Game 7 Final Betting Recommendation
This line opened tight for good reason. Golden State’s experience makes them dangerous, but Houston has adapted quickly and now owns the edge on both ends of the floor. Game 7s often come down to who’s more physical and defensively focused that’s Houston right now.
Top Bets:
Spread: Houston -2.5
Total: Under 205.5 – Both defenses have stepped up, and Game 7s historically trend under.
Top Props: Fred VanVleet Over Assists | Curry Over Points
Final Score Prediction: Rockets 103, Warriors 98
Back the younger, sharper team at home to complete the turnaround.
- NBA Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
