Phoenix (7-4) at Las Vegas (5-4)
- When: Jun 15 2025, 6:00 PM
- Where: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Paradise, NV, USA
- TV: Vegas 34
Phoenix vs. Las Vegas – WNBA Game Preview, Prediction and Player Props
Spread: Phoenix -4.5 | Total: 164.5
Phoenix Mercury Breakdown
Phoenix rolls into Sin City sitting at 7-4 overall and 3-2 in Commissioner’s Cup play, with momentum building and possibly their superstar back. There’s growing optimism that Kahleah Copper will return from knee surgery, which would be a massive boost to a team already trending upward. Even without her, the Mercury just handled Dallas with a 93-80 win, sparked by the return of Natasha Mack and Alyssa Thomas, who helped shore up a previously shaky defense.
Head coach Nate Tibbetts pointed out that deeper rotations have allowed Phoenix to play with more energy on the defensive end, and with Copper potentially back in the fold, Phoenix suddenly looks like a complete squad again. With Satou Sabally leading the charge at 20.5 points and 7.8 boards per game, the Mercury’s offense has more than held its own.
Phoenix Prop Pick: Satou Sabally Over 19.5 Points – She’s been the Mercury’s go-to scorer and will continue to see volume, especially if Copper is eased back.
Las Vegas Aces Breakdown
The Aces are 5-4 and 2-2 in Commissioner’s Cup action, and Friday’s gritty 88-84 win over Dallas came without A’ja Wilson, who remains in concussion protocol. Wilson’s return is uncertain, but Las Vegas proved they can adapt, with Jackie Young dropping 28 points and Jewell Loyd adding 21. Coach Becky Hammon compared her team to “five gummy bears” one minute and “resilient soldiers” the next, so yeah, it’s been a rollercoaster.
But with Chelsea Gray and Loyd both averaging double digits alongside Young, the Aces still have enough firepower to compete. Defensively, however, they’ve lacked consistency without Wilson’s paint presence, which could be a problem if Phoenix’s full arsenal takes the floor.
Las Vegas Prop Pick: Jackie Young Over 18.5 Points – With Wilson out, the ball is in her hands more often, and she’s stepping into a leadership scoring role.
Betting Angle & Prediction
Phoenix is a 4.5-point favorite, with the total set at 164.5. The Mercury are deeper, potentially getting their top scorer back, and already play with better two-way consistency. Las Vegas can hang offensively, but if Wilson sits again, they’ll be outmatched in the paint and on the boards.
Best Bet: Phoenix -4.5
Toral: Over 164.5
Final Score Prediction: Phoenix 87, Las Vegas 81 – Especially if Copper suits up
- WNBA Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
