Detroit (54-34) at Cleveland (40-45)
- When: Jul 4 2025, 7:10 PM
- Where: Progressive Field, Cleveland
- Where to watch: FDSDET
Tigers vs Guardians – Game Preview, Prediction and Player Props
Moneyline: Detroit -114
Total: 8.0
RunLine: Detroit -1.5 (+150)
Detroit Tigers Outlook
Pitching: Reese Olson (4-3, 2.96 ERA)
The Tigers hit the road for a big July 4th weekend series, facing the same Guardians squad that stunned them in last year’s ALDS. Now on top of the AL Central, Detroit is out for revenge and Reese Olson’s return could set the tone.
Olson will be back in action after nearly seven weeks on the IL with a finger issue. His 2.96 ERA still ranks among the best in the league, and he’s looked sharp in two previous starts against Cleveland (3.00 ERA). Manager A.J. Hinch didn’t downplay Olson’s importance, calling him “underrated and quietly essential.”
At the plate, Detroit enters after splitting a doubleheader in Washington, led by Riley Greene’s monster game (2 HR, 6 RBI). Greene’s emergence as one of the AL’s most dangerous hitters, second in the league in RBIs makes this lineup tough to fade.
Tigers Player Prop Picks:
Reese Olson Over 5.5 Strikeouts – Cleveland ranks near the bottom of the league in runs over the past week, and Olson’s whiff-heavy arsenal should thrive against a free-falling lineup.
Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs – While Torres isn’t with the Tigers, his bat has been heating up and he’s shown value in interleague prop markets.
Cleveland Guardians Outlook
Pitching: Slade Cecconi (3-3, 3.64 ERA)
Cleveland limps into this matchup on a brutal seven-game skid, now trailing the Tigers by a whopping 12.5 games. Their offense is flatlining shut out in four of the last seven and the pressure is mounting at Progressive Field.
Slade Cecconi will try to halt the slide, but he’s coming off a shaky outing where he allowed three runs in under five innings. While he did beat Detroit earlier this season, his recent form isn’t inspiring confidence. On top of that, the club is also dealing with the unexpected absence of pitcher Luis Ortiz due to a league investigation, further thinning the depth chart.
Manager Stephen Vogt praised Cecconi’s work ethic, but the Guardians need more than effort, they need runs.
Guardians Player Prop Picks:
Slade Cecconi Over 2.5 Earned Runs – He’s allowed multiple runs in three straight starts and Detroit has crushed righties lately.
Carlos Santana To Record an RBI – If anyone is going to snap the Guardians’ scoring funk, it’s likely Santana, particularly if Cecconi falters early and the Tigers’ bullpen gets tested.
Final Prediction & Betting Angle
With Reese Olson returning and Cleveland’s offense stuck in the mud, the Tigers look like solid value on the runline at +150. Detroit’s lineup is producing, and they’ve got the pitching edge in this spot. Detroit is poised to open this revenge series with a statement win.
Final Score Prediction: Tigers 5, Guardians 2
Lean: Detroit -1.5 (+150)
Total: Under 8.0 (-112)
- MLB Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
