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Minnesota (1-1) at Phoenix (1-1)
- When: Sep 26 2025, 9:30 PM
- Where: PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ, USA
- TV: ESPN2
Minnesota vs Phoenix – WNBA Playoffs Preview, Prediction and Player Props
Spread: Minnesota -4.0 | Total: 159.5
Phoenix Mercury: Fighting Back with Firepower
The Phoenix Mercury pulled off one of the wildest comebacks of the postseason, erasing a 20-point deficit in Game 2 to stun Minnesota in overtime, 89-83. That victory shifted momentum in this WNBA semifinal and handed Phoenix home-court advantage heading into Game 3.
Coach Nate Tibbetts praised his team’s toughness but stressed they “haven’t done anything yet.” The Mercury leaned on Alyssa Thomas to orchestrate the offense, while Satou Sabally caught fire from deep, draining five triples to fuel the rally. If Phoenix can continue hitting shots from outside, they’ll force Minnesota to pick its poison defensively.
Player Prop Pick (Mercury): Satou Sabally Over 1.5 Made Threes – Her volume and confidence beyond the arc are keys in this series.
Minnesota Lynx: Needing a Road Answer
The Lynx took Game 1 behind a dominant fourth quarter but let a golden chance slip away Tuesday. Now down in home-court leverage, Cheryl Reeve’s team faces the challenge of winning in Phoenix to reclaim control of the series.
Courtney Williams has been outstanding, racking up 43 points, 16 assists, and 15 boards across the first two games. Napheesa Collier, the MVP runner-up, has been steady but missed a potential series-dagger jumper in Game 2. The Lynx will need their stars to match Phoenix’s surge from outside while re-establishing their defensive identity.
Player Prop Pick (Lynx): Courtney Williams Over 6.5 Assists – She’s consistently creating opportunities and driving Minnesota’s offense in this matchup.
WNBA Betting Breakdown & Prediction
The Bovada odds favor Minnesota by -4.0 with a total set at 159.5. But Phoenix has proven to be a resilient group, now energized by home-court support. The Mercury’s ability to stretch the floor with Thomas facilitating and Sabally knocking down shots makes them dangerous in this spot. Phoenix keeps the momentum rolling and grabs a 2-1 series edge.
Best Bet: Minnesota -4.0
Toral: Over 159.5
Final Score Prediction: Mercury 85, Lynx 79
- WNBA Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
