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Denver (12-3-0) at Kansas City (6-9-0)
- When: Dec 25 2025, 8:15 PM
- Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
- Where to watch: Amazon Prime Video
- Last Meeting: DEN 22-19, November 16th, 2025
Denver vs Kansas City Preview & Prediction
Spread: Denver -13.5
Moneyline: Denver (-1185)
Total: 36.5
Denver Broncos Betting Overview
Denver enters Christmas night in an unfamiliar role as the hunter instead of the hunted. Sitting at 12 and 3, the Broncos control their path toward an AFC West crown and potentially much more. With a win here and some help from Houston against the Chargers, Denver could be celebrating a division title before the regular season even ends.
Last week’s loss to Jacksonville was a wake up call, snapping an 11 game winning streak and exposing a few cracks, especially defensively. Still, Sean Payton’s group has been dominant all season, leaning on balance, discipline, and a defense that consistently wins field position battles.
Bo Nix has embraced the moment as the calendar tightens. Denver does not need style points anymore. They need execution, especially on the road at Arrowhead. The Broncos already proved they can beat Kansas City, edging them 22 to 19 earlier this season, and the matchup now tilts even further in Denver’s favor.
Kansas City’s injury depleted secondary is a major concern against Courtland Sutton, and Denver should look to exploit that early. The Broncos defense also holds a massive advantage against a Chiefs offense starting a quarterback making his first NFL start.
Broncos Prediction: Denver covers comfortably by leaning on defense, field position, and efficient offense.
Broncos Player Prop Pick: Courtland Sutton over 61.5 receiving yards -With Kansas City missing its top two cornerbacks, Sutton’s matchup is about as favorable as it gets.
Kansas City Chiefs Betting Overview
This season has been survival mode for Kansas City. At 6-9, injuries have completely flipped the script for a franchise used to dominating December football. Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew are sidelined, forcing Chris Oladokun into the starting role behind a banged up offensive line.
Despite the circumstances, effort will not be lacking. Arrowhead on Christmas night still means something, and veterans like Chris Jones and Travis Kelce are determined to give fans a reason to cheer. That said, emotion only goes so far when talent gaps are this wide.
Oladokun showed toughness last week, but Denver’s defense is significantly stronger than what he just faced. Sustaining drives will be difficult, and explosive plays may be nearly impossible. Kansas City will likely lean heavily on short passes and the run game just to keep things manageable.
Kelce could be playing his final game at Arrowhead, which may lead to a few designed looks his way, but Denver’s coverage schemes are well equipped to limit tight ends.
Chiefs Prediction: Kansas City competes early but struggles to keep pace once Denver pulls ahead.
Chiefs Player Prop Pick: Travis Kelce over 39.5 receptions – If this is potentially his last home appearance, expect the Chiefs to funnel targets to him as a safety valve.
Betting Outlook & NFL Expert Prediction
With Denver favored by 13.5 and the total sitting at 36.5, the matchup strongly favors a Broncos cover and a lower scoring game. Denver’s defense controls the tempo, and Kansas City’s injuries are simply too much to overcome on a short week.
Final Score: Broncos 27, Chiefs 10
Lean: Denver -13.5
Total: Over 36.5
- NFL Football Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
