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Montreal (2-2) at Buffalo (2-2)
- When: May 14 2026, 7:00 PM
- Where: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY, USA
- TV: TNT
Montreal vs Buffalo NHL Preview & Pick
Moneyline: Buffalo -122
Spread: Buffalo -1.5 (+210)
Total: 6.0
Montreal Canadiens Betting Breakdown
The Canadiens head back to Buffalo knowing this series could look completely different if they had capitalized on their power-play opportunities in Game 4.
Montreal Canadiens dropped a frustrating 3-2 decision Tuesday despite generating plenty of offensive pressure throughout the night. Montreal finished just 1-for-7 on the power play, and those missed opportunities now leave the series tied 2-2 instead of putting the Canadiens one victory from advancing.
Defenseman Kaiden Guhle emphasized afterward that confidence inside the locker room remains high. Montreal has already battled through difficult playoff situations earlier this postseason and still carries a solid 4-2 road record entering Game 5.
The Canadiens continue getting strong production from Alex Newhook, who enters Thursday with five goals over his last three games. His aggressive play around the net has become a major problem for Buffalo’s defense.
Cole Caufield also remains dangerous offensively after scoring in consecutive games, although he was denied multiple times Tuesday by Buffalo goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen during critical moments.
Montreal still looks capable of controlling stretches of play, but special teams must improve immediately. The Canadiens cannot continue wasting power-play opportunities against a Buffalo team gaining momentum and confidence at home.
Buffalo Sabres Betting Breakdown
The Sabres regained momentum in this series thanks largely to outstanding goaltending and timely finishing in Game 4.
Buffalo Sabres received a huge performance from Luukkonen, who stopped 28 shots in his return to the crease. After earlier postseason struggles, the Buffalo netminder responded with several game-changing saves, especially during Montreal power plays.
Coach Lindy Ruff openly credited Luukkonen for preserving the victory, particularly during dangerous second-period opportunities generated by Caufield.
Buffalo’s offense also delivered when needed. Zach Benson celebrated his 21st birthday with the eventual game-winning goal early in the third period, while Tage Thompson continued his excellent postseason with a goal and an assist.
Another important contributor has been Josh Doan, who carries a five-game assist streak into Thursday’s matchup. His ability to create chances off the rush has added another dangerous layer to Buffalo’s attack.
Home ice now becomes a major advantage again for the Sabres. Ruff stressed the importance of protecting home games, especially in a series where momentum keeps shifting back and forth almost nightly.
Buffalo also enters Game 5 with strong special teams confidence after converting twice on the power play Tuesday while successfully limiting Montreal’s opportunities.
NHL Playoffs Betting Prediction
This series has become extremely tight, but Buffalo appears to have regained the edge entering Game 5.
The Sabres have the better goaltending momentum right now, home-ice advantage, and slightly stronger special teams play. Montreal should continue generating chances offensively, but Buffalo’s physicality and balanced scoring depth could become the difference late again.
Expect another close playoff-style battle with limited scoring opportunities.
Score Prediction: Sabres 3, Canadiens 2
Pick: Buffalo ML (-122)
Total: Under 6.0 (-117)
- NHL Playoffs Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
