The AFC championship game will heat up Sunday night as Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow and the striped orange helmet look to make history by becoming only the second team to defeat Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs three times in a row. The Chiefs have been a playoff powerhouse under Mahomes, boasting an impressive nine wins, 32 touchdowns and three interceptions in 10 career home playoff starts. Can Burrow lead his team to victory and glory in this huge and intense matchup?
The lead story going into this matchup the Mahomes ankle injury that he suffered in his last game versus the Jaguars. He will be playing in on Sunday but will this injury effect his play. He is the type of quarterback that is best when he extends the play, which in this case will force him to try to beat the Bengal’s from the pocket.
When looking at that years AFC championship game between these two, the Bengals defense dropped 8 into coverage which forced Mahomes to stay in the pocket. As a result, Mahomes went 7/14 for 72 yards, 0 Touchdowns, 1 interception and got sacked 4 times when the Bengals dropped 8 into coverage.
As for the Bengals offense versus the Chiefs defense, Joe Burrow has just been magic for Cincinnati. He gets the ball off quickly and has been showing some ability to run the ball. Even though, the Bengals offensive line is banged up, but if there is one quarterback that won’t make his offensive line a factor, its Joe Burrow. Also, the Chiefs run defense is vulnerable so expect a heavy run offense led by Joe Mixon. You saw what they did to the Bills defense in Buffalo, in the snow. And to top things of Joe Burrow is undefeated against Patrick Mahomes.
That said, I’m rolling with the Cincinnati Bengals at plus 1 and half of my AFC Championship free pick for Sunday’s game.
Cincinnati at Kansas City
When: 6:30 PM ET, Sunday, January 29, 2023
Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
Where to watch: CBS
Game Odds, Spread, Moneyline & Total
Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs
Moneyline
Cincinnati Bengals EVEN
Kansas City Chiefs -120
Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs
Point Spread
Cincinnati Bengals 1.5 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 (-110)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs
Total
Over 48.5 (-105)
Under 48.5 (-115)
Team Record & Betting Stats
| Name | Record | ATS | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati | 14-4 | 13-5 | 26.06 | 19.39 |
| Kansas City | 15-3 | 7-11 | 29.06 | 21.61 |
| Name | ATS Home | ATS Away | OU Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati | 5-3 | 8-2 | 7-10-1 |
| Kansas City | 3-6 | 4-5 | 8-10 |
Cincinnati Bengals Last 5 Games
| Opponent | score | Result | line | ATS Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 27-10 | W | 5.5/48.5 | W/U |
| BAL | 24-17 | W | -8/40 | L/O |
| BAL | 27-16 | W | -11.5/39 | L/O |
| NE | 22-18 | W | -3/41.5 | W/U |
| TB | 34-23 | W | -3.5/47.5 | W/O |
Kansas City Chiefs Last 5 Games
| Opponent | score | Result | line | ATS Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAC | 27-20 | W | -9.5/52 | L/U |
| LV | 31-13 | W | -8.5/52 | W/U |
| DEN | 27-24 | W | -12.5/46 | L/O |
| SEA | 24-10 | W | -10/50.5 | W/U |
| HOU | 30-24 | W | -14/48.5 | L/O |
Betting Odds Trends
| Cincinnati Bengals | ||
|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games | ||
| Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games | ||
| The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Cincinnati’s last 23 games | ||
| Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road | ||
| Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road | ||
| The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Cincinnati’s last 15 games on the road | ||
| Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City | ||
| Cincinnati is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Kansas City | ||
| The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Cincinnati’s last 14 games when playing Kansas City | ||
| The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cincinnati’s last 8 games when playing on the road against Kansas City | ||
| Kansas City Chiefs | ||
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games | ||
| Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games | ||
| Kansas City is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games at home | ||
| Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home | ||
| The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City’s last 7 games at home | ||
| Kansas City is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati | ||
| Kansas City is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Cincinnati | ||
| The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Kansas City’s last 14 games when playing Cincinnati | ||
| The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Kansas City’s last 8 games when playing at home against Cincinnati | ||
Cincinnati Injuries
| Player | Status/Updated |
|---|---|
| Ted Karras | Prob Sun – Knee – 1/25/23 |
| Joe Bachie | Ques Sun – Foot – 1/25/23 |
| Tre Flowers | Ques Sun – Hamstring – 1/23/23 |
| Jonah Williams | Doub Sun – Knee – 1/25/23 |
| Alex Cappa | Doub Sun – Ankle – 1/25/23 |
| D’Ante Smith | Out indefinitely – Illness – 12/18/22 |
| La’el Collins | I-R – Knee – 12/30/22 |
| Chidobe Awuzie | I-R – Knee – 11/5/22 |
| Drew Sample | I-R – Knee – 10/3/22 |
| Clark Harris | Out indefinitely – Bicep – 9/14/22 |
| Tycen Anderson | Out indefinitely – Hamstring – 9/16/22 |
| Ben Brown | I-R – Bicep – 8/15/22 |
| Elijah Holyfield | I-R – Knee – 8/18/22 |
| Brandon Wilson | I-R – Knee – 12/5/22 |
Kansas City Injuries
| Player | Status/Updated |
|---|---|
| Willie Gay | Prob Sun – Toe – 1/25/23 |
| Jerick McKinnon | Prob Sun – Ankle – 1/25/23 |
| Patrick Mahomes | Prob Sun – Ankle – 1/25/23 |
| Mecole Hardman | Ques Sun – Pelvis – 1/25/23 |
| Joshua Kaindoh | Out indefinitely – Illness – 11/8/22 |
| Jody Fortson | Ques Sun – Elbow – 1/23/23 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | Ques Sun – Ankle – 1/23/23 |
| Tershawn Wharton | I-R – Knee – 11/2/22 |
| Justyn Ross | I-R – Foot – 7/31/22 |
NFL Picks & Free Predictions
The Pick: Cincinnati Bengals +1½A $100 Parlay Bet will return $264 in Profit
NFL Odds source: Bovada Sportsbook
