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SMU (0-0) at Florida State (1-0)
- When: Sep 7 2026, 7:30 PM
- Where: Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
- Where to watch: ESPN
Last Meeting: SMU 42-16, September 28th, 2024
(19) SMU vs Florida State Preview & Prediction
Spread: SMU -2.5
Moneyline: SMU (-147)
Total: 54.5
SMU vs Florida State: Labor Day After Dark
No. 19 SMU enters Tallahassee as a 2.5-point favorite, with the total at 54.5. The Mustangs have won 20 games in their first two ACC seasons, reached the conference title game and College Football Playoff in 2024, and apparently decided conference realignment was supposed to be easy.
The Mustangs’ Heisman Department
Kevin Jennings returns for his third season as SMU’s starting quarterback with 7,709 career passing yards, 559 rushing yards and 65 total touchdowns (55 passing, 10 rushing). Rhett Lashlee has a proven playmaker and an offense capable of making Florida State’s defense regret its film session.
Florida State: A Win, With Homework
The Seminoles opened with a 34-17 win over New Mexico State, but needed a late push after leading just 17-10 in the third quarter. Ousmane Kromah delivered 115 rushing yards and a touchdown at 8.2 yards per carry. Samuel Singleton Jr. added 168 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns, earning ACC Receiver of the Week honors.
The problem? Florida State allowed 10 third-down conversions on 17 attempts. That is less “defensive statement” and more “please remain on the line.”
LVSB Betting Pick
Florida State has the advantage of already playing a game, but SMU has the better-established quarterback and an extra week to study those defensive leaks. The Mustangs also won the teams’ first meeting 42-16 in 2024.
Score Prediction: SMU 31, Florida State 24
Spread Pick: SMU -2.5
Total Pick: Over 54.5
Jennings gets the offense moving, Florida State contributes enough fireworks, and the Mustangs leave Tallahassee with the win.
- NCAA Football Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
- Get real-time live scores & latest betting odds here!
