I am starting to really enjoy these teaser bets. We got ourselves back on the winning track this past weekend and now sit at 4-1 on the year on our NFL basic strategy teaser bets that pay out at (-120) betting odds.
We had the New York Jets and the Houston Texans teased up to 7.5-point underdogs. Both of these teaser legs hit fairly easily, with the Jets winning their game and Houston losing by just two points on a late touchdown.
Some of you guys may already know what a teaser bet is. You can scroll down for the prediction, but here is a quick course for the rest.
What is a Teaser?
A teaser is a type of parlay wager where the bettor can give their teams or legs, underdogs or betting favorites, more or less points to their spread. That will lower the payout, as you would imagine.
What is a Basic Strategy Teaser?
A basic strategy teaser is when we take a six-point, 2-team teaser and tease them through the key numbers of 3, 6, and 7. The most common key number or exact point differential is 3, followed by 7 and 6.
The key number of 3 accounts for 15% of NFL outcomes, while 7 and 6 combine for 15% as well.
If we want to tease up a betting underdog, we look for one with odds of (+1.5) to (+2.5), and after giving them six points, they have betting odds in the range of (+7.5) to (+8.5).
To tease a betting favorite down, we take odds of (-7.5) to (-8.5) through the key numbers to (-1.5) to (-2.5).
Another important part of this strategy is to keep your teaser to two legs. Stay smart, and don’t get greedy.
We have several potential games to use as legs to our Week 6 NFL teaser bet. Let’s review our options and make a prediction.
Potential Week 6 Teaser Games
Dallas Cowboys (-2) at Los Angeles Chargers (+2)
It’s not a hard rule, but definitely a soft one. If we want to tease an underdog up, we generally don’t want to do that in a game with a high total. The score can get out of hand and has a higher likelihood of a double-digit margin of victory for the favorite.
I think that applies here. While I do like the Chargers’ chances to win outright, I also like the chances that this game goes over the already high point total of 50.5. A score of 30-21 would beat us.
Another thing I don’t like about this game is that we would be betting against a good team.
Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
This was my first lean when I looked at the NFL betting odds for Week 6. The Seahawks, like the Chargers, are coming into this game on a bye week. We dig that, of course, but they rank 30th in the NFL in pass yards allowed per game, and Joe Burrow is coming off of his best performance of the year by far.
I think the betting odds are just about right on this one. We may come back to it if we need to.
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) @ Chicago Bears (+2.5)
The Minnesota Vikings are surely undervalued, right? They are the best 1-4 team in the league. I know that much. With star wide receiver Justin Jefferson going down for a while, though, the Vikings are in a weird place.
One would think that this game is a must-win, but maybe the team decides to go the other way, makes some trades, and prepares for the upcoming draft.
So, tease up the Bears? It works with our basic strategy. I want to, and they do look better lately. There are too many narratives heading into this one for me, though.
Washington Commanders (+2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)
We are 9-1 on our teaser legs this season, and we got there by avoiding games like this. Is it likely to play out closely? Sure, but these teams are not good or consistent.
San Francisco 49ers (-6) @ Cleveland Browns (+6)
The betting odds for this game don’t fit our strategy, but I think we may need to break a rule this week. The only other time we did that this year was with San Francisco, and we teased them down from a higher number.
Cleveland is another team coming off of a bye, though. I just worry because they haven’t been consistent this year.
The big question is will quarterback Deshaun Watson play with a bad ankle? Even if he plays, the Niners have an elite pass rush. For the Browns to win, they will need to be +2 in the turnover margin.
The outlook for that isn’t good because Cleveland ranks around 30th in turnovers and 30th in turnovers forced, while the Niners are top three in the league in both stats.
Arizona Cardinals (+7) @ Los Angeles Rams (-7)
Do we tease the Rams down to a 1-point favorite? It would be slightly outside our basic strategy but still a solid leg.
The question is do we have a better teaser team? I like San Francisco already. So, this one comes down to the Seahawks or the Rams. LA will be at home and playing against a worse team.
We would, of course, need the Rams to win, and all we need from the Hawks is to keep it within 8 points. Betting against Joe Burrow coming off of his best game of the season is not a bet I want to make, though, guys.
I have a take on the Arizona Cardinals. They compete for about half of the game or until it’s out of reach, then they chill. This strategy allows them to compete and still lose.
Whether it is on purpose or not, I like the LA Rams to find a way to win, and likely by double-digits.
NFL Week 6 Teaser Prediction
San Francisco 49ers (Pick’em) and LA Rams (-1): -120
