Chi. Cubs (22-16) at NY Mets (24-14)
- When: May 9 2025, 7:10 PM
- Where: Citi Field, Flushing, Queens
- Where to watch: MLB Network
New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs Game Preview and Prediction
Moneyline: Mets (-160)
Total: 8.0
The New York Mets are set to host the Chicago Cubs for the opener of a three-game series, as both teams currently sit atop their respective divisions. This matchup not only sets the stage for a potential playoff preview but also gives the Mets an opportunity to extend their lead in the NL East. New York is the clear moneyline favorite at -160, and with the total set at 8.0, the expectation is for a moderately paced offensive showdown.
New York Mets Overview
The Mets head into this series on the back of a strong showing against the Arizona Diamondbacks, where Juan Soto broke out of his early-season slump with a pair of home runs in a 7-1 victory. Soto’s power display signaled a promising turnaround for the superstar, who has seen his OPS rise to .863, still below his career average but trending in the right direction.
On the mound for New York is Clay Holmes (4-1, 2.95 ERA), who has been solid this season. Holmes picked up the win in his last start against the Cardinals, allowing just three runs over six innings. His previous outings against the Cubs have primarily been in relief, where he’s posted a 1-0 record with a 3.80 ERA. With New York’s defense stepping up, including standout plays from Francisco Lindor and Tyrone Taylor, Holmes is in a good position to keep the Cubs’ bats quiet.
The Mets also snapped their first losing streak of the season against Arizona, ending a tough stretch that saw them drop back-to-back series for the first time since last August. Now back at Citi Field, the Mets look to continue their winning ways and cover the -160 moneyline as favorites.
Chicago Cubs Overview
The Cubs come into this series after a frustrating set against the San Francisco Giants, where they dropped two straight, including an 11-inning meltdown that ended in a 14-5 loss. Despite those setbacks, Chicago remains a threat offensively, leading the majors with 223 runs scored so far this season. However, their bats went cold in the series finale against the Giants, managing just four hits and leaving multiple runners stranded in key moments.
Taking the hill for Chicago is Jameson Taillon (2-1, 3.86 ERA), who has historically pitched well against the Mets. Taillon boasts a 4-0 record with a 1.96 ERA across six career starts versus New York. In his last outing against Milwaukee, he went six innings, allowing only two runs in a 6-2 Cubs victory. If Taillon can keep the Mets’ offense in check, Chicago has a chance to stay competitive, especially if their bats wake up.
Chicago has been resilient in tough spots, but their bullpen woes highlighted by Ryan Pressly’s collapse against San Francisco remain a concern. To compete with the Mets, the Cubs will need to be more consistent at the plate and shore up their late-inning relief.
Prediction and Final Score
The Mets have the upper hand heading into this matchup, with Holmes looking sharp on the mound and Soto’s bat heating up. Meanwhile, the Cubs are dealing with inconsistencies both at the plate and in the bullpen. Look for New York to leverage home-field advantage and build on their momentum from the Arizona series.
Final Score Prediction: Mets 4, Cubs 3
Lean: Mets ML (-160)
Total Play: Under 8.0 (-120)
Expect New York to win and cover the moneyline, with the Under 8.0 in play as both starters are likely to keep the game within reach, but the Mets’ bullpen and defense should seal it late.
Player Prop Picks:
Clay Holmes – Over 4.5 Strikeouts: Holmes has been sharp in his last few starts and faces a Cubs lineup that tends to swing aggressively.
Juan Soto – Over 1.5 Total Bases: After a breakout performance in Arizona, Soto looks primed to continue his hot streak at the plate.
- MLB Odds source: MyBookie Sportsbook
